# TREA-Net: A Transferable Residual Epidemiological Adaptation Network for Dengue Incidence Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.26854 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.26854/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 4 of its 30 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 29 Jul 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 4 of 4)

- [FiLM: Visual Reasoning with a General Conditioning Layer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.07871/) (2017)
- [TiRex: Zero-Shot Forecasting Across Long and Short Horizons with Enhanced In-Context Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.23719/) (2025)
- [EpiGNN: Exploring Spatial Transmission with Graph Neural Network for Regional Epidemic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.11517/) (2022)
- [Epidemic-guided deep learning for spatiotemporal forecasting of Tuberculosis outbreak](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.10786/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accurate multi-week dengue forecasting supports timely vector-control interventions, outbreak preparedness, and healthcare resource allocation. However, newly established surveillance systems often lack the historical data needed to train reliable neural forecasting models. Although pretrained time-series models offer promising zero-shot forecasts, their cross-domain training may not capture local epidemiological dynamics. We propose TREA-Net, a Transferable Residual Epidemiological Adaptation Network for dengue forecasting under limited data. TREA-Net augments neural forecasting backbones with projections from an Environmental Time-Series Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model and learns a lightweight gated residual correction transferable from data-rich to data-scarce regions. Its node-invariant design accommodates surveillance systems with different numbers of locations, while target adaptation requires learning only two global parameters. We transfer knowledge from long-running dengue surveillance in Colombia and Nicaragua to 8-week-ahead forecasting in Mexico and Malaysia using only 78 or 104 weeks of target data. Across five neural backbones and ten transfer settings, TREA-Net improves the corresponding backbone in 9 out of 10 settings, with statistically significant gains. When integrated with TiRex, a foundation model for forecasting, it achieves the lowest mean absolute error across all target datasets. Conformal prediction further maintains empirical coverage while reducing 8-week prediction-interval width by 29.6% in Mexico. These results demonstrate TREA-Net's potential as a lightweight and portable early-warning framework for health agencies with limited surveillance data.