# Benchmarking ConvLSTM for One-Day-Ahead IMDAA Rainfall-Field Prediction across Four Indian Cities

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.26581 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.26581/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 11 of its 25 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 29 Jul 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 11 of 11)

- [Grad-CAM: Visual Explanations from Deep Networks via Gradient-based Localization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.02391/) (2016)
- [Convolutional LSTM Network: A Machine Learning Approach for Precipitation Nowcasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.04214/) (2015)
- [Sanity Checks for Saliency Maps](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.03292/) (2018)
- [Interpretation of Neural Networks is Fragile](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.10547/) (2017)
- [Skillful Precipitation Nowcasting using Deep Generative Models of Radar](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.00954/) (2021)
- [Deep Learning for Precipitation Nowcasting: A Benchmark and A New Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03458/) (2017)
- [Benchmarking Deep Learning Interpretability in Time Series Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.13924/) (2020)
- [Correlation and variable importance in random forests](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1310.5726/) (2013)
- [Finding the right XAI method -- A Guide for the Evaluation and Ranking of Explainable AI Methods in Climate Science](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.00652/) (2023)
- [Grouped variable importance with random forests and application to multiple functional data analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1411.4170/) (2014)
- [On the modern deep learning approaches for precipitation downscaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.00808/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Convolutional long short-term memory networks (ConvLSTMs) are widely used for precipitation forecasting, but most evidence for their performance comes from dense, high-frequency radar sequences. This study tests whether convolutional recurrence improves one-day-ahead rainfall-field prediction on small daily reanalysis grids. Indian Monsoon Data Assimilation and Analysis (IMDAA) fields for June-September 1998-2020 were analysed for Bengaluru, Delhi, Kolkata and Mumbai. Ten naive, statistical, tree-based and neural approaches were compared using atmospheric-only and rainfall-history-plus-atmospheric inputs. Performance was assessed for complete fields, domain-mean rainfall, spatial anomalies and high-rainfall days. ConvLSTM did not consistently outperform simpler alternatives. FC-LSTM produced the numerically lowest domain-mean rainfall error in Bengaluru, Kolkata and Mumbai, whereas persistence performed best in Delhi. ConvLSTM produced the numerically lowest spatial-anomaly error only in Mumbai, where rainfall fields showed greater short-term spatial continuity and rainfall-history inputs improved all three neural architectures. The difference between ConvLSTM and FC-LSTM was nevertheless small. Neural models underestimated rainfall magnitude and predicted too few threshold exceedances on high-rainfall days, while persistence achieved the highest detection performance in every city. Post-hoc analyses showed that the selected models were most sensitive to the latest input day, with broader recent-lag sensitivity in Mumbai. These findings show that gridded inputs alone do not justify ConvLSTM and that architecture choice should follow strong benchmarking across average, spatial and high-rainfall performance.