# Early Verdicts, Better Budgets: Sequential Adaptive Rollout Allocation for Compute-Efficient RLVR

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.26253 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.26253/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 30 of its 38 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 28 Jul 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 30)

- [Proximal Policy Optimization Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1707.06347/) (2017)
- [DeepSeekMath: Pushing the Limits of Mathematical Reasoning in Open Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03300/) (2024)
- [Measuring Mathematical Problem Solving With the MATH Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.03874/) (2021)
- [Qwen2.5 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.15115/) (2024)
- [Let's Verify Step by Step](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.20050/) (2023)
- [DAPO: An Open-Source LLM Reinforcement Learning System at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.14476/) (2025)
- [HybridFlow: A Flexible and Efficient RLHF Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.19256/) (2024)
- [Solving Quantitative Reasoning Problems with Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.14858/) (2022)
- [Understanding R1-Zero-Like Training: A Critical Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.20783/) (2025)
- [Kimi k1.5: Scaling Reinforcement Learning with LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12599/) (2025)
- [OlympiadBench: A Challenging Benchmark for Promoting AGI with Olympiad-Level Bilingual Multimodal Scientific Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.14008/) (2024)
- [LIMO: Less is More for Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.03387/) (2025)
- [Stop Overthinking: A Survey on Efficient Reasoning for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.16419/) (2025)
- [L1: Controlling How Long A Reasoning Model Thinks With Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.04697/) (2025)
- [Towards Reasoning Era: A Survey of Long Chain-of-Thought for Reasoning Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.09567/) (2025)
- [Reinforcement Learning for Reasoning in Large Language Models with One Training Example](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.20571/) (2025)
- [Learning to Optimize Via Posterior Sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1301.2609/) (2013)
- [REINFORCE++: Stabilizing Critic-Free Policy Optimization with Global Advantage Normalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.03262/) (2025)
- [ProRL: Prolonged Reinforcement Learning Expands Reasoning Boundaries in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.24864/) (2025)
- [ThinkPrune: Pruning Long Chain-of-Thought of LLMs via Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.01296/) (2025)
- [LIMR: Less is More for RL Scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.11886/) (2025)
- [Act Only When It Pays: Efficient Reinforcement Learning for LLM Reasoning via Selective Rollouts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.02177/) (2025)
- [Self-Evolving Curriculum for LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.14970/) (2025)
- [Online Difficulty Filtering for Reasoning Oriented Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.03380/) (2025)
- [CPPO: Accelerating the Training of Group Relative Policy Optimization-Based Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.22342/) (2025)
- [Concise Reasoning via Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.05185/) (2025)
- [SRPO: A Cross-Domain Implementation of Large-Scale Reinforcement Learning on LLM](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.14286/) (2025)
- [Small Generalizable Prompt Predictive Models Can Steer Efficient RL Post-Training of Large Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.01970/) (2026)
- [Dynamics-Predictive Sampling for Active RL Finetuning of Large Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.10887/) (2026)
- [TRACE: A Unified Rollout Budget Allocation Framework for Efficient Agentic Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.11119/) (2026)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [SIPO: Selective-Inference Policy Optimization for Tree-Structured Agentic RL](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.34805/) (2026)
- [SERA: Scale-Equalized Rollout Allocation for Maximum Likelihood Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.36552/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) is bottlenecked by rollout generation, yet many sampled prompts produce saturated groups (all responses correct or all incorrect) whose zero reward variance yields no policy-gradient signal. Existing remedies either oversample a larger candidate pool and discard saturated prompts (dynamic sampling), paying heavy extra rollouts, or predict prompt difficulty before sampling, which is fragile under a shifting policy. We observe that a group's effectiveness is usually decided early, within the first few of its rollouts, so spending a full group on an already-decided prompt is wasteful. We cast per-step rollout collection as a budget-constrained sequential allocation (optimal stopping) problem and introduce SARA (Sequential Adaptive Rollout Allocation). SARA maintains a Beta posterior over each prompt's success rate, evaluates a closed-form predictor of group effectiveness, and applies a two-threshold, SPRT-style rule that commits effective groups, abandons saturated ones after a short probe, and reallocates the freed budget to fresh prompts, without any extra prediction rollouts. We prove abandonment reliability, expected rollout savings, fixed-budget yield dominance, and a link between effective-group yield and the GRPO gradient norm. On mathematical reasoning and planning with 1.5B/3B models on a single GPU, SARA matches DPS (both below the DS oracle) while using 22% fewer rollouts than DS; composing SARA with DPS yields the best accuracy, slightly above DS, at 67% fewer rollouts (near-uniform cost).