# Leak-Free Cross-Validated Stacking with Per-Architecture Calibration for Sand-Boil Segmentation in Earthen Levees

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.25367 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.25367/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 44 of its 74 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 28 Jul 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 44)

- [PyTorch: An Imperative Style, High-Performance Deep Learning Library](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.01703/) (2019)
- [U-Net: Convolutional Networks for Biomedical Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.04597/) (2015)
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- [Segment Anything](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.02643/) (2023)
- [EfficientNet: Rethinking Model Scaling for Convolutional Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.11946/) (2019)
- [Adding Conditional Control to Text-to-Image Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.05543/) (2023)
- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- [Feature Pyramid Networks for Object Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.03144/) (2016)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Fully Convolutional Networks for Semantic Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1411.4038/) (2014)
- [Squeeze-and-Excitation Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.01507/) (2017)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
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- [DreamBooth: Fine Tuning Text-to-Image Diffusion Models for Subject-Driven Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.12242/) (2022)
- [Encoder-Decoder with Atrous Separable Convolution for Semantic Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.02611/) (2018)
- [SegFormer: Simple and Efficient Design for Semantic Segmentation with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.15203/) (2021)
- [CutMix: Regularization Strategy to Train Strong Classifiers with Localizable Features](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.04899/) (2019)
- [SAM 2: Segment Anything in Images and Videos](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.00714/) (2024)
- [Pyramid Scene Parsing Network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01105/) (2016)
- [Masked-attention Mask Transformer for Universal Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.01527/) (2021)
- [DPM-Solver: A Fast ODE Solver for Diffusion Probabilistic Model Sampling in Around 10 Steps](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.00927/) (2022)
- [UNet++: A Nested U-Net Architecture for Medical Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.10165/) (2018)
- [SegNet: A Deep Convolutional Encoder-Decoder Architecture for Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1511.00561/) (2015)
- [Attention U-Net: Learning Where to Look for the Pancreas](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1804.03999/) (2018)
- [Simple Copy-Paste is a Strong Data Augmentation Method for Instance Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07177/) (2020)
- [Training Region-based Object Detectors with Online Hard Example Mining](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1604.03540/) (2016)
- [Albumentations: fast and flexible image augmentations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.06839/) (2018)
- [Synthetic Data from Diffusion Models Improves ImageNet Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.08466/) (2023)
- [Effective Data Augmentation With Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.07944/) (2023)
- [DatasetGAN: Efficient Labeled Data Factory with Minimal Human Effort](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.06490/) (2021)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Sand boils, points where water seeping beneath an earthen levee re-emerges at the surface, are early warnings of internal erosion, and deep segmentation networks are increasingly used to find them in inspection photographs. Annotated examples are scarce, and two common ways of working around that scarcity quietly inflate reported accuracy: tuning ensemble weights on the same images later used to score them, and training on synthetic images derived from the very photographs held out for testing. We present a sand-boil segmentation framework that closes both loopholes. Every synthetic image carries a pointer to its real parent, and a per-fold filter excludes any image whose parent is held out; five encoder-decoder backbones are trained under five-fold cross-validation, calibrated by one temperature scalar each, and combined by a per-pixel meta-learner fitted only on out-of-fold predictions. On the held-out test set the proposed Updated SandBoilNet reaches an intersection-over-union of 0.707 over three seeds, against 0.608 for the published original re-evaluated on the same split. Under the stacking protocol the calibrated stack reaches 0.681 against 0.694 for the strongest fold-averaged member, so it does not improve on the best single model; eight meta-learner families reproduce that outcome, which we trace to a mean pairwise error correlation of 0.894 among members. A synthetic pool filtered for label fidelity lifts the champion to 0.718 over three seeds against a 0.707 control. We also introduce a mask-conditioned synthesis route that makes the conditioning mask the label by construction, giving labelled training images at zero annotation cost.