# Beyond Predictive Accuracy: A Reliability-Aware Audit of Molecular Representations for Human Olfaction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.24848 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.24848/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 8 of its 27 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 25 Jul 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 8 of 8)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [BERT: Pre-training of Deep Bidirectional Transformers for Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.04805/) (2018)
- [Neural Message Passing for Quantum Chemistry](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.01212/) (2017)
- [MoleculeNet: A Benchmark for Molecular Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.00564/) (2017)
- [Convolutional Networks on Graphs for Learning Molecular Fingerprints](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1509.09292/) (2015)
- [ChemBERTa: Large-Scale Self-Supervised Pretraining for Molecular Property Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.09885/) (2020)
- [Large-Scale Chemical Language Representations Capture Molecular Structure and Properties](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.09553/) (2021)
- [Machine Learning for Scent: Learning Generalizable Perceptual Representations of Small Molecules](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.10685/) (2019)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Pretrained molecular encoders are commonly evaluated through downstream prediction, but predictive accuracy alone does not establish that a learned representation captures reproducible scientific structure, adds information beyond strong conventional baselines, or transfers out of distribution. We present a reliability-aware audit of generic molecular representations for human olfaction across four distinct claims: global perceptual geometry, incremental predictive value beyond chemistry, cross-dataset replication, and mixture transfer to unseen components. Using the Keller-Vosshall and Bierling single-molecule rating datasets and the Ma binary-mixture dataset, we compare MoLFormer and ChemBERTa against RDKit descriptors and Morgan fingerprints under identity-controlled and matched evaluations. Human three-attribute rating geometry, based on intensity, pleasantness, and familiarity, is reproducible across participant splits (median RSA 0.743 and 0.855), whereas model-human alignment is substantially weaker (RSA 0.019-0.158). Learned embeddings do not consistently outperform conventional representations in global alignment, and MoLFormer provides no clear incremental predictive value beyond a combined RDKit-Morgan baseline in either single-molecule dataset. Human geometry shows positive but incomplete agreement across 63 shared molecules (RSA 0.331; 95% bootstrap interval [0.204, 0.507]). Under one strict unseen-component mixture split, incremental effects are outcome- and representation-dependent, with all intervals crossing zero. These results establish empirical boundaries for the evaluated generic molecular encoders and motivate a broader evaluation principle: representation quality in scientific domains should be assessed separately for target reliability, structural alignment, incremental information, replication, and out-of-distribution transfer.