# Eviction as Estimation: A Fixed-Lag Smoothing View of Test-Time Memory, and When Measuring Beats Accumulating

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.24667 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.24667/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 12 of its 19 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 27 Jul 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 12 of 12)

- [Qwen2.5 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.15115/) (2024)
- [Efficient Streaming Language Models with Attention Sinks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.17453/) (2023)
- [LongBench: A Bilingual, Multitask Benchmark for Long Context Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.14508/) (2023)
- [RULER: What's the Real Context Size of Your Long-Context Language Models?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.06654/) (2024)
- [SnapKV: LLM Knows What You are Looking for Before Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.14469/) (2024)
- [H2O: Heavy-Hitter Oracle for Efficient Generative Inference of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.14048/) (2023)
- [Evaluating Very Long-Term Conversational Memory of LLM Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.17753/) (2024)
- [Model Tells You What to Discard: Adaptive KV Cache Compression for LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.01801/) (2023)
- [Scissorhands: Exploiting the Persistence of Importance Hypothesis for LLM KV Cache Compression at Test Time](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.17118/) (2023)
- [PyramidKV: Dynamic KV Cache Compression based on Pyramidal Information Funneling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.02069/) (2024)
- [Titans: Learning to Memorize at Test Time](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.00663/) (2024)
- [SCBench: A KV Cache-Centric Analysis of Long-Context Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.10319/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

A language model with a bounded working memory must repeatedly decide which stored items to keep. Every deployed method decides the moment an item arrives, from the past (StreamingLLM, H2O) or from a guess about the future (SnapKV). We recast the choice as an estimation problem on a hidden signal, whether an item will be reused, placing existing methods on one axis, the commit lag H: online filters and learned predictors commit at H=0, while Belady's offline optimum sits where the whole future is known. The missing regime in between, fixed-lag smoothing, waits a bounded number of steps, observes which items a correct near-future prediction attended to, and only then commits. This measurement, demonstrated utility, turns Belady's unobservable future request into something we read off the model itself. We instantiate it as a training-free policy, RMM, a strict generalization of H2O that reduces to it exactly when the measurement is uniform. In controlled settings where reuse is endogenous and separated in time, demonstrated utility identifies used memory far better than accumulated attention, and a small bounded memory behaves like a much larger one. But on independent third-party benchmarks, run inside NVIDIA's KVPress harness against its own SnapKV, H2O, and StreamingLLM implementations, the advantage mostly disappears: RMM is on par with H2O for single-turn question answering and loses to both H2O and SnapKV in a streaming multi-turn setting. The cause is simple: on natural text the model is correct about most tokens, so weighting attention by correctness barely changes it, and demonstrated utility collapses onto accumulated attention unless reuse is sharp and endogenous, which standard benchmarks do not exercise. Our contribution is the framework and an honest map of when measuring beats accumulating, not a new state of the art.