# Context-Aware Concept Distillation for Trustworthy Flood Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.23237 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.23237/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 11 of its 24 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 25 Jul 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 11 of 11)

- [Grad-CAM: Visual Explanations from Deep Networks via Gradient-based Localization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.02391/) (2016)
- [A Unified Approach to Interpreting Model Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07874/) (2017)
- ["Why Should I Trust You?": Explaining the Predictions of Any Classifier](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1602.04938/) (2016)
- [Deep Inside Convolutional Networks: Visualising Image Classification Models and Saliency Maps](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1312.6034/) (2013)
- [Interpretability Beyond Feature Attribution: Quantitative Testing with Concept Activation Vectors (TCAV)](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.11279/) (2017)
- [Concept Bottleneck Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.04612/) (2020)
- [Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) on TimeSeries Data: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.00950/) (2021)
- [Towards Learning Universal, Regional, and Local Hydrological Behaviors via Machine-Learning Applied to Large-Sample Datasets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.08456/) (2019)
- [Flood forecasting with machine learning models in an operational framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.02780/) (2021)
- [Probing the limit of hydrologic predictability with the Transformer network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.12384/) (2023)
- [From Black Box to Insight: Explainable AI for Extreme Event Preparedness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.13712/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Effective flood risk management relies on accurate forecasting, yet the "black box" nature of stateof-the-art Deep Learning models creates a barrier to trust and accountability in high-stakes public safety decisions. While existing Explainable AI (XAI) methods offer local attributions, they fail to provide the verifiable, operationally meaningful causal narratives required by disaster response authorities. To address this societal challenge, we propose Context-Aware Concept Distillation (CACD), a framework developed in collaboration with domain experts to distill opaque LSTMs into interpretable, hydrology-aware surrogate models. We introduce an unsupervised pipeline to discover a "Hydrological Language" and a Residual Hypernetwork that dynamically modulates these concepts based on static basin characteristics. Evaluated on 5,203 basins globally, our model achieves high fidelity (Median NSE 0.70), significantly outperforming black-box baselines (e.g., Multi Layer Perceptrons) on unseen future data. By demonstrating that human-interpretable concepts are sufficient to reconstruct flood dynamics, this work balances AI accuracy with the transparency required for responsible environmental decision-making.