# Evaluating the Effectiveness of Persona Simulation in Opinion Prediction with GPT-4.1

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.20589 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.20589/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 9 of its 19 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 22 Jul 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 9 of 9)

- [Generative Agents: Interactive Simulacra of Human Behavior](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.03442/) (2023)
- [Out of One, Many: Using Language Models to Simulate Human Samples](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.06899/) (2022)
- [From Persona to Personalization: A Survey on Role-Playing Language Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.18231/) (2024)
- [In-Context Impersonation Reveals Large Language Models' Strengths and Biases](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14930/) (2023)
- [LLM Generated Persona is a Promise with a Catch](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.16527/) (2025)
- [MathVC: An LLM-Simulated Multi-Character Virtual Classroom for Mathematics Education](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.06711/) (2024)
- [LLMs generate structurally realistic social networks but overestimate political homophily](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.16629/) (2024)
- [PatientSim: A Persona-Driven Simulator for Realistic Doctor-Patient Interactions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.17818/) (2025)
- [PAARS: Persona Aligned Agentic Retail Shoppers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.24228/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Persona simulation involves utilizing large language models (LLMs) to anticipate human choices or interactions based on specific characteristic information. To further understand current limitations and future directions, we tested persona simulation in opinion prediction with GPT-4.1 (knowledge cutoff by June 2024). Using personas from nine U.S. states provided by Columbia University's Personas dataset, GPT-4.1 accurately predicted 2024 election outcomes in eight out of the nine states, only failing in one of the swing states. We then focused on opinions related to medicine and healthcare. With the American Trends Panel Wave 123 dataset from Pew Research Center, GPT-4.1 was able to anticipate beliefs about childhood vaccines with an accuracy of up to 0.94. Furthermore, we applied GPT-4.1 to generate conversations among personas and observed that the simulated dialogues and opinions adhered well to personas' personalities and backgrounds, albeit lacking natural human-like flow. Persona simulation proves to be a promising application of artificial intelligence as long as biases are addressed. In the near future, it will be beneficial to apply it to opinion analysis and reaction prediction in diverse fields ranging from public health to lawmaking to economics.