# Confidently Deceptive: On the Relationship Between Confidence and Deception in LLMs

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.20444 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.20444/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 18 of its 52 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 12 May 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 18 of 18)

- [Qwen3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09388/) (2025)
- [Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05221/) (2022)
- [Gemma 3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.19786/) (2025)
- [gpt-oss-120b & gpt-oss-20b Model Card](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.10925/) (2025)
- [OpenAI GPT-5 System Card](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.03267/) (2025)
- [Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13063/) (2023)
- [Sleeper Agents: Training Deceptive LLMs that Persist Through Safety Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.05566/) (2024)
- [GLM-4.5: Agentic, Reasoning, and Coding (ARC) Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.06471/) (2025)
- [Monitoring Reasoning Models for Misbehavior and the Risks of Promoting Obfuscation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.11926/) (2025)
- [Alignment faking in large language models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.14093/) (2024)
- [AI Deception: A Survey of Examples, Risks, and Potential Solutions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.14752/) (2023)
- [Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Software Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.14499/) (2025)
- [The MASK Benchmark: Disentangling Honesty From Accuracy in AI Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.03750/) (2025)
- [Thought Crime: Backdoors and Emergent Misalignment in Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.13206/) (2025)
- [Monitoring Monitorability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.18311/) (2025)
- [Think Just Enough: Sequence-Level Entropy as a Confidence Signal for LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.08146/) (2025)
- [Liars' Bench: Evaluating Lie Detectors for Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.16035/) (2025)
- [Difficulties with Evaluating a Deception Detector for AIs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.22662/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The increasing capabilities of large language models (LLMs) are being accompanied by deep-rooted risks of deceptive behaviours that cause models to produce misleading outputs in service of a contextually or experimentally induced goal. The harm posed by such behaviours depends not only on the content of deceptive outputs but also how confidently models deliver them, since confidence has a major impact on how persuasive the communication is to end users. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive study on the crucial relationship between confidence and deception across existing deception benchmarks and different model families, while covering both verbalized numerical and logit-based aggregated confidence. Through this, we reveal how confidently models behave when being deceptive. We demonstrate that when producing deceptive rather than honest responses, models exhibit a gap between their belief (how likely they think a claim is to be true) and their commitment (how firmly they assert and would defend that claim). LLMs produce persuasive deceptive claims while reporting low belief in their factual correctness. Their reported commitment to deceptive responses can easily be increased through further prompting and preference fine-tuning, with smaller and condition-dependent changes in reported belief. However, we show that low reported belief remains comparatively invariant and provides a strong signal for detecting deception in the evaluated settings. Using only an API call, our approach achieves detection scores of up to 0.99 for induced deception and 0.89 for emergent deception. This ultimately shows how confidence can be a practical tool for detecting and diagnosing deceptive behaviour in LLMs.