# CUSUM-Shaped Inference-Time Monitoring and Targeted Re-Decoding for Quantized Small Language Model Reasoning

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.20129 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.20129/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Test-time compute and efficient thinking, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 27 of its 33 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 22 Jul 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Test-time compute and efficient thinking](https://mlsanity.com/lr/test-time-compute-and-efficient-thinking/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 27 of 27)

- [Self-Consistency Improves Chain of Thought Reasoning in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.11171/) (2022)
- [Let's Verify Step by Step](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.20050/) (2023)
- [Self-Refine: Iterative Refinement with Self-Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.17651/) (2023)
- [Tree of Thoughts: Deliberate Problem Solving with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.10601/) (2023)
- [The Curious Case of Neural Text Degeneration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.09751/) (2019)
- [Scaling LLM Test-Time Compute Optimally can be More Effective than Scaling Model Parameters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.03314/) (2024)
- [Deep Think with Confidence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.15260/) (2025)
- [The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Entropy Minimization in LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.15134/) (2025)
- [Thoughts Are All Over the Place: On the Underthinking of o1-Like LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.18585/) (2025)
- [Fact-Checking the Output of Large Language Models via Token-Level Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.04696/) (2024)
- [Game-theoretic statistics and safe anytime-valid inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.01948/) (2022)
- [Quantization Hurts Reasoning? An Empirical Study on Quantized Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.04823/) (2025)
- [Repetition In Repetition Out: Towards Understanding Neural Text Degeneration from the Data Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10226/) (2023)
- [E-detectors: a nonparametric framework for sequential change detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.03532/) (2022)
- [Step Back to Leap Forward: Self-Backtracking for Boosting Reasoning of Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.04404/) (2025)
- [Self-Correction Bench: Uncovering and Addressing the Self-Correction Blind Spot in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.02778/) (2025)
- [The Evolution of Thought: Tracking LLM Overthinking via Reasoning Dynamics Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.17627/) (2025)
- [WATCH: Adaptive Monitoring for AI Deployments via Weighted-Conformal Martingales](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.04608/) (2025)
- [Penalty Decoding: Well Suppress the Self-Reinforcement Effect in Open-Ended Text Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.14971/) (2023)
- [Adaptive Conformal Inference by Betting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.19318/) (2024)
- [Quantized Reasoning Models Think They Need to Think Longer, but They Do Not](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.00206/) (2026)
- [Quantization Meets Reasoning: Exploring and Mitigating Degradation of Low-Bit LLMs in Mathematical Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.11574/) (2025)
- [Stop When Reasoning Converges: Semantic-Preserving Early Exit for Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.17672/) (2026)
- [Mitigating Overthinking in Large Reasoning Language Models via Reasoning Path Deviation Monitoring](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.14251/) (2026)
- [Circular Reasoning: Understanding Self-Reinforcing Loops in Large Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.05693/) (2026)
- [Beyond the Frontier: Stochastic Backtracking for Efficient Test-Time Scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.25143/) (2026)
- [The Shape of Overthinking: Backtracking Bursts in Long Reasoning Traces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.27965/) (2026)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Adaptive Triggering for Bias Correction in LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.25379/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Quantized small reasoning models can enter repetitive or otherwise unproductive trajectories, yet standard decoding does not adapt to the trajectory as it unfolds. We study MGT-B, a fixed, weight-preserving controller that converts overlapping windows of uncertainty, repetition, and local-change features into position-conditional empirical tail probabilities. It accumulates mixture betting factors with a CUSUM-shaped reset, and, after an alarm, restores a coherent earlier token and key-value-cache state before constrained re-decoding. On MATH-500, a paired three-seed evaluation over 1,500 generations per method raises exact-normalized accuracy from 54.73% for vanilla decoding to 56.40% (+1.67 percentage points; problem-clustered bootstrap 95% CI [+0.47, +2.80]), while a prospectively profiled random-intervention control reaches 54.60%. The gain is positive in all three seeds and costs 5.14% more sampled tokens. Seed-0 ablations show that rollback alone does not explain the result and that an isolated repetition penalty is harmful. Five-sample self-consistency reaches 70.0% but uses about 4.84x as many tokens as MGT-B. On the harder, non-overlapping Omni-MATH evaluation, however, MGT-B obtains 16.60% versus 16.67% for vanilla (-0.07 points; clustered 95% CI [-0.33, +0.20]) with 2.10% more sampled tokens. Thus, MGT-B provides a modest, reproducible local improvement on MATH-500 in the studied configuration, but the effect does not transfer to Omni-MATH and should not be interpreted as a general improvement in mathematical reasoning.