# Behaviour-Conditioned Neural Processes for Adaptive Residential Short-Term Load Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.16168 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.16168/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 14 of its 50 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 17 Jul 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 14 of 14)

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- [The Concrete Distribution: A Continuous Relaxation of Discrete Random Variables](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1611.00712/) (2016)
- [Semi-Supervised Learning with Deep Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1406.5298/) (2014)
- [Conditional Neural Processes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.01613/) (2018)
- [Attentive Neural Processes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.05761/) (2019)
- [Advances in Variational Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.05597/) (2017)
- [Principles and Algorithms for Forecasting Groups of Time Series: Locality and Globality](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.00444/) (2020)
- [Temporal FiLM: Capturing Long-Range Sequence Dependencies with Feature-Wise Modulations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.06628/) (2019)
- [Heterogeneity-Informed Meta-Parameter Learning for Spatiotemporal Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.10800/) (2024)
- [Time series clustering based on prediction accuracy of global forecasting models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.00473/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Residential short-term load forecasting (STLF) is challenging because household demand is heterogeneous, temporally variable, and shaped by diverse behavioural routines. This work investigates whether inferred behavioural structure can be embedded within the forecasting mechanism of a Neural Process-based probabilistic model, rather than used only as an external grouping signal, for context-conditioned residential STLF. We propose a behaviour-conditioned Attentive Neural Process framework that treats each load profile as a forecasting task. Behavioural structure is represented by a discrete latent variable inferred from the available context and used for behaviour-conditioned decoder conditioning, while a continuous latent variable captures shared functional uncertainty across heterogeneous profiles. To enable conditioning without ground-truth behavioural labels, clustering-derived information provides weak supervision during training, whereas test-time conditioning relies only on context-inferred class distributions. Experiments on the Smart Grid, Smart City (SGSC) dataset use user-disjoint train/validation/test splits, variable context lengths, and multi-step forecast horizons, with comparisons against a label-agnostic ANP baseline and fixed-window deterministic STLF baselines. The proposed variants improve MAE and CRPS over ANP across horizons and context settings, with the largest gains under limited context. The best-performing variant achieves average reductions of 7.9% in MAE and 6.9% in CRPS relative to ANP. Compared with fixed-window baselines, this variant achieves lower RMSE across all evaluated horizons while maintaining competitive MAE, suggesting fewer large prediction deviations under heterogeneous consumption patterns. These results support single-model, uncertainty-aware forecasting across heterogeneous households, contexts, and horizons.