# CardioMeta: Calibrated Multi-Task Prediction of Diabetes, Hypertension, and Cardiovascular Disease Across Population and EHR Data

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.15721 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.15721/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 12 of its 37 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 17 Jul 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 12 of 12)

- [A Unified Approach to Interpreting Model Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07874/) (2017)
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- [A Survey on Bias and Fairness in Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.09635/) (2019)
- [Counterfactual Explanations without Opening the Black Box: Automated Decisions and the GDPR](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.00399/) (2017)
- [TabNet: Attentive Interpretable Tabular Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.07442/) (2019)
- [TabTransformer: Tabular Data Modeling Using Contextual Embeddings](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.06678/) (2020)
- [RETAIN: An Interpretable Predictive Model for Healthcare using Reverse Time Attention Mechanism](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1608.05745/) (2016)
- [BEHRT: Transformer for Electronic Health Records](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.09538/) (2019)
- [Doctor AI: Predicting Clinical Events via Recurrent Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1511.05942/) (2015)
- [Demographic-Aware Transfer Learning for Sleep Stage Classification in Clinical Polysomnography](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.02245/) (2026)
- [InfiltrNet: Dual-Branch CNN-Transformer Architecture for Brain Tumor Infiltration Risk Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.02230/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Cardiometabolic diseases remain among the most persistent drivers of preventable morbidity because diabetes, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease frequently co-occur and share metabolic, vascular, demographic, and behavioral determinants. Existing machine learning studies for chronic disease prediction often emphasize discrimination on a single dataset, while underreporting label leakage, calibration, temporal robustness, external transportability, and subgroup reliability. This paper presents CardioMeta, a calibrated multi-task framework for joint prediction of diabetes, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease across population survey and electronic health record (EHR) data. The study uses NHANES for population-level model development and temporal validation, and MIMIC-IV for EHR-domain evaluation under substantial distribution shift. To reduce circular label reconstruction, the primary analysis excludes disease-defining variables from the corresponding prediction heads, while a full-clinical feature setting is retained only as sensitivity analysis. CardioMeta combines a shared cardiometabolic encoder with disease-specific gated heads and post-hoc probability calibration. In the leakage-reduced temporal validation setting, the model achieved a macro-AUROC of 0.839, macro-AUPRC of 0.536, macro-F1 of 0.614, and expected calibration error of 0.024, with modest but consistent improvements over strong gradient-boosting and neural tabular baselines. External evaluation on MIMIC-IV showed clear degradation under domain shift, while limited fine-tuning partially recovered performance. The findings indicate that the principal value of multi-task cardiometabolic modeling lies not in inflated accuracy, but in reproducible leakage control, calibrated probabilities, and transparent reliability reporting across heterogeneous healthcare data sources.