# VAIOM: Continuous-Input, Discrete-Output Decoder-Only Financial Sequence Modeling

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.13929 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.13929/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 34 of its 43 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 15 Jul 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 34)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [BERT: Pre-training of Deep Bidirectional Transformers for Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.04805/) (2018)
- [An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11929/) (2020)
- [EfficientNet: Rethinking Model Scaling for Convolutional Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.11946/) (2019)
- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [FEDformer: Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer for Long-term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.12740/) (2022)
- [TimesNet: Temporal 2D-Variation Modeling for General Time Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02186/) (2022)
- [iTransformer: Inverted Transformers Are Effective for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06625/) (2023)
- [An Overview of Multi-Task Learning in Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.05098/) (2017)
- [Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.07815/) (2024)
- [Time-LLM: Time Series Forecasting by Reprogramming Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.01728/) (2023)
- [A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10688/) (2023)
- [One Fits All:Power General Time Series Analysis by Pretrained LM](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.11939/) (2023)
- [Unified Training of Universal Time Series Forecasting Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.02592/) (2024)
- [MOMENT: A Family of Open Time-series Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03885/) (2024)
- [Multi-Task Learning with Deep Neural Networks: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.09796/) (2020)
- [Deeply-Supervised Nets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.5185/) (2014)
- [TimeMixer: Decomposable Multiscale Mixing for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.14616/) (2024)
- [Time-MoE: Billion-Scale Time Series Foundation Models with Mixture of Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.16040/) (2024)
- [Rank consistent ordinal regression for neural networks with application to age estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.07884/) (2019)
- [Lag-Llama: Towards Foundation Models for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.08278/) (2023)
- [Three things everyone should know about Vision Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.09795/) (2022)
- [Getting ViT in Shape: Scaling Laws for Compute-Optimal Model Design](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.13035/) (2023)
- [The Depth-to-Width Interplay in Self-Attention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.12467/) (2020)
- [Establishing Task Scaling Laws via Compute-Efficient Model Ladders](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.04403/) (2024)
- [MarS: a Financial Market Simulation Engine Powered by Generative Foundation Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.07486/) (2024)
- [Kronos: A Foundation Model for the Language of Financial Markets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.02739/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Financial observations are continuous, heterogeneous, and noisy, whereas decoder-only next-token models are usually built around discrete symbolic inputs. We introduce Vector-Input Autoregressive Inference for Ordinal-Return Modeling (VAIOM), a decoder-only Transformer for probabilistic next-return modeling on one-hour foreign-exchange bars. VAIOM separates input representation from output likelihood: continuous multivariate financial-event vectors preserve numerical structure at the input, while a categorical distribution over the next volatility-normalized return bucket supports cross-entropy training and likelihood evaluation. The selected 0.9M Hybrid Continuous Input model combines continuous event features with categorical asset metadata, a Mixture-of-Market-States return head, Gap, volatility-regime, and Ordinal auxiliary objectives, and full-sequence supervision. Models and preprocessing are fit using pre-2024 Train data; models are selected on 2024H2 Validation and evaluated without refitting on two 2025 Test periods. Across three independent training seeds, every model outperforms fixed single-bar LightGBM baseline in both Test halves. For the canonical checkpoint, paired gains over LightGBM are 0.029 and 0.043 bits per event. Validation experiments show that continuous input improves over discrete-token input under the same categorical return objective, full-sequence supervision improves over last-position training, and auxiliary representation shaping together with a mixture-structured return head improves return likelihood in controlled comparisons. A supporting capacity study finds that the smallest evaluated complete architecture rung achieves the strongest Validation likelihood on the present corpus.