# Accuracy-Preserving Stability Regularization for Large-Scale Retail Demand Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.13331 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.13331/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 5 of its 20 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 14 Jul 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 5 of 5)

- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [TimeMixer: Decomposable Multiscale Mixing for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.14616/) (2024)
- [Using dynamic loss weighting to boost improvements in forecast stability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.18267/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Style Over Substance: Content-Invariant Wrappers Flip LLM Safety-Judge Verdicts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.08236/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Retail demand forecasts are reused across replenishment, capacity, labor, and transportation planning cycles. Point-error objectives do not constrain abrupt movement between adjacent forecasts, while post-hoc smoothing acts only after model fitting. We ask whether a training-time penalty on consecutive within-series movement can improve horizontal forecast-path stability without materially changing point accuracy. The penalty is evaluated in a temporal-structured pipeline combining recent-demand embeddings with calendar, price, hierarchy, item, and store features. On selected M5 demand series at 1000, 3000, and 4000-series scales, the stability-aware hybrid model improves Forecast Stability Score over XGBoost by 6.91%, 6.66%, and 7.68%, respectively, while RMSE changes remain within 0.72% across three random seeds. Post-hoc exponential smoothing attains lower raw movement but incurs a larger RMSE cost; training-time regularization preserves more point accuracy and performs favorably under normalized stability. These findings extend forecast evaluation from point-error minimization toward an accuracy-stability trade-off perspective for operational retail forecasting.