# SUREFlow: State-space Uncertainty-aware REsidual Flow Matching for Robust Robot Manipulation

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.10504 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.10504/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Efficient VLA inference and adaptation, one of 13 directions in Vision-language-action models.
- Builds on 24 of its 27 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 11 Jul 2026.

## Placed in

- Vision-language-action models / [Efficient VLA inference and adaptation](https://mlsanity.com/vla/efficient-vla-inference-and-adaptation/)
- Diffusion models / [Diffusion and flow policies for robotics](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/diffusion-and-flow-policies-for-robotics/)
- State-space sequence models (S4, Mamba) / [Video, motion and generative Mamba models](https://mlsanity.com/ssm/video-motion-and-generative-mamba-models/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 24 of 24)

- [Flow Matching for Generative Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02747/) (2022)
- [Mamba: Linear-Time Sequence Modeling with Selective State Spaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.00752/) (2023)
- [RT-2: Vision-Language-Action Models Transfer Web Knowledge to Robotic Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.15818/) (2023)
- [OpenVLA: An Open-Source Vision-Language-Action Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.09246/) (2024)
- [Diffusion Policy: Visuomotor Policy Learning via Action Diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.04137/) (2023)
- [π0: A Vision-Language-Action Flow Model for General Robot Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.24164/) (2024)
- [What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04977/) (2017)
- [RT-1: Robotics Transformer for Real-World Control at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.06817/) (2022)
- [π0.5: a Vision-Language-Action Model with Open-World Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.16054/) (2025)
- [Octo: An Open-Source Generalist Robot Policy](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.12213/) (2024)
- [LIBERO: Benchmarking Knowledge Transfer for Lifelong Robot Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.03310/) (2023)
- [Meta-World: A Benchmark and Evaluation for Multi-Task and Meta Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.10897/) (2019)
- [Building Normalizing Flows with Stochastic Interpolants](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.15571/) (2022)
- [Implicit Behavioral Cloning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.00137/) (2021)
- [TinyVLA: Towards Fast, Data-Efficient Vision-Language-Action Models for Robotic Manipulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.12514/) (2024)
- [Learning Latent Plans from Play](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.01973/) (2019)
- [TraceVLA: Visual Trace Prompting Enhances Spatial-Temporal Awareness for Generalist Robotic Policies](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.10345/) (2024)
- [Residual Reinforcement Learning for Robot Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.03201/) (2018)
- [LIBERO-PRO: Towards Robust and Fair Evaluation of Vision-Language-Action Models Beyond Memorization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.03827/) (2025)
- [RoboMamba: Efficient Vision-Language-Action Model for Robotic Reasoning and Manipulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.04339/) (2024)
- [Hierarchical Diffusion Policy for Kinematics-Aware Multi-Task Robotic Manipulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.03890/) (2024)
- [QueST: Self-Supervised Skill Abstractions for Learning Continuous Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.15840/) (2024)
- [Mamba Policy: Towards Efficient 3D Diffusion Policy with Hybrid Selective State Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.07163/) (2024)
- [HiMaCon: Discovering Hierarchical Manipulation Concepts from Unlabeled Multi-Modal Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.11321/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [GaussVLA: Geometry-Aware Spatial Reasoning for Vision-Language-Action Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.24959/) (2026)
- [Quantile Head for Vision-Language-Action Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.34061/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Generative vision-language-action policies have advanced robot manipulation, but they often exhibit instability under noise, partial observability, and stochastic initial conditions. During extended rollouts, small velocity errors accumulate, degrading execution reliability. Existing diffusion and flow-based policies typically assume homoscedastic residuals and lack explicit uncertainty modeling within action generation, limiting robustness during iterative rollout. We propose SUREFlow, a state-space uncertainty-aware residual flow matching framework built on a Mamba backbone. The method jointly predicts action velocities and input-dependent residual uncertainty, enabling selective refinement of unreliable action dimensions without environment feedback while preserving computational efficiency. On LIBERO, SUREFlow achieves 92.5% average success rate (SR), outperforming the Mamba-based MaIL by 34.2%. On LIBERO-PRO, it attains around 49% SR using only 179M parameters, achieving performance comparable to large VLAs with 3-7B parameters. SUREFlow source code is available on: https://github.com/tanvirnwu/SUREFlow