# Silent Failures in Quantized LLM Reasoning: A Taxonomy-Based Analysis of Hollow Convergence and Failure Mode Shifts

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.09999 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.09999/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Test-time compute and efficient thinking, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 13 of its 27 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 10 Jul 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Test-time compute and efficient thinking](https://mlsanity.com/lr/test-time-compute-and-efficient-thinking/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 13 of 13)

- [Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.11903/) (2022)
- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [Judging LLM-as-a-Judge with MT-Bench and Chatbot Arena](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.05685/) (2023)
- [Think you have Solved Question Answering? Try ARC, the AI2 Reasoning Challenge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.05457/) (2018)
- [Let's Verify Step by Step](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.20050/) (2023)
- [QLoRA: Efficient Finetuning of Quantized LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14314/) (2023)
- [GPTQ: Accurate Post-Training Quantization for Generative Pre-trained Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.17323/) (2022)
- [Language Models Don't Always Say What They Think: Unfaithful Explanations in Chain-of-Thought Prompting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.04388/) (2023)
- [Large Language Models are not Fair Evaluators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.17926/) (2023)
- [LLM.int8(): 8-bit Matrix Multiplication for Transformers at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.07339/) (2022)
- [Measuring Faithfulness in Chain-of-Thought Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.13702/) (2023)
- [Faithful Chain-of-Thought Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.13379/) (2023)
- [Evaluating Quantized Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.18158/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We show that post-training quantization can silently alter how large language models reason even when task accuracy is preserved. Using a six-category failure taxonomy validated by two independent human annotators (Cohen's kappa = 0.906), we classify 30,000 chain-of-thought outputs from five instruction-tuned LLMs (3B--14B parameters) across three quantization precisions (FP32, FP16, NF4) and four reasoning benchmarks. We find that while accuracy is robust across precisions (maximum 3.1 pp drop), Hollow Convergence (correct answers reached through incomplete or unverifiable reasoning) shows a significant size-dependent shift under NF4, dropping sharply for the two smallest models tested but remaining invariant for models at 12B parameters and above. This effect is also benchmark-specific: GSM8K is categorically immune while LogiQA and ARC-Challenge show the largest shifts. Furthermore, under NF4, Shortcut Collapse rises from 44% to 78% of wrong-answer failures in LLaMA 3.2-3B while Confidence Snowballing collapses from 15.8% to near zero, a qualitative shift invisible to accuracy metrics. Finally, we show Hollow Convergence cannot be reliably detected from surface-level text features (best F1 = 0.53), establishing it as a deployment-relevant failure mode that standard evaluation pipelines cannot catch.