# From Noisy Traces to Root Causes: Structural Trajectory Analysis and Causal Extraction for Agent Optimization

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.07702 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.07702/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Software engineering coding agents, one of 16 directions in LLM agents and tool use.
- Builds on 24 of its 42 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 8 Jul 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM agents and tool use / [Software engineering coding agents](https://mlsanity.com/agents/software-engineering-coding-agents/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 24 of 24)

- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Knowledge-Intensive NLP Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.11401/) (2020)
- [Evaluating Large Language Models Trained on Code](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03374/) (2021)
- [Reflexion: Language Agents with Verbal Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.11366/) (2023)
- [Toolformer: Language Models Can Teach Themselves to Use Tools](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.04761/) (2023)
- [HotpotQA: A Dataset for Diverse, Explainable Multi-hop Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.09600/) (2018)
- [Lost in the Middle: How Language Models Use Long Contexts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.03172/) (2023)
- [SWE-bench: Can Language Models Resolve Real-World GitHub Issues?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06770/) (2023)
- [A Survey on Large Language Model based Autonomous Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.11432/) (2023)
- [WebArena: A Realistic Web Environment for Building Autonomous Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.13854/) (2023)
- [Large Language Models Are Human-Level Prompt Engineers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.01910/) (2022)
- [AlphaEvolve: A coding agent for scientific and algorithmic discovery](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.13131/) (2025)
- [Large Language Models Can Be Easily Distracted by Irrelevant Context](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.00093/) (2023)
- [DSPy: Compiling Declarative Language Model Calls into Self-Improving Pipelines](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.03714/) (2023)
- [Automatic Prompt Optimization with "Gradient Descent" and Beam Search](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.03495/) (2023)
- [Automated Design of Agentic Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.08435/) (2024)
- [EvoPrompt: Connecting LLMs with Evolutionary Algorithms Yields Powerful Prompt Optimizers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.08532/) (2023)
- [RUDDER: Return Decomposition for Delayed Rewards](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.07857/) (2018)
- [ACON: Optimizing Context Compression for Long-horizon LLM Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.00615/) (2025)
- [AgenTracer: Who Is Inducing Failure in the LLM Agentic Systems?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.03312/) (2025)
- [Hindsight Credit Assignment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.02503/) (2019)
- [Stop Summation: Min-Form Credit Assignment Is All Process Reward Model Needs for Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.15275/) (2025)
- [CAPO: Towards Enhancing LLM Reasoning through Generative Credit Assignment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.02298/) (2025)
- [VeruSAGE: A Study of Agent-Based Verification for Rust Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.18436/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Root-Cause Attribution Is a Search Problem: Continual Search for Long-Horizon Agent Failures](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.13463/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The optimization of long-horizon agents increasingly relies on reflection-based mechanisms, where a large language model (LLM) acts as an optimizer to diagnose agent failures and improve agent policies. However, real execution traces are difficult to use directly for optimization: large trace collections are often redundant and heterogeneous, making optimization inefficient and prone to overfitting to low-value failures; meanwhile, each individual trajectory also contains many irrelevant steps, while naive context reduction methods such as truncation or sliding windows can discard causally important evidence and produce misleading optimization signals. To resolve this dilemma, we introduce STRACE (Structural TRajectory Analysis and Causal Extraction), a framework that constructs high signal-noise optimization contexts for more precise and effective optimization. At the batch level, STRACE mines failure patterns to filter redundant traces and retain representative failures; within each selected trace, it performs causal localization over a textual dependency graph to remove non-causal steps and identify the true root-cause module for optimization. Empirical results demonstrate that STRACE significantly outperforms standard context-filtering baselines. Notably, on a challenging formal verification task (VeruSAGE-Bench), it successfully optimizes human-expert designed agents, delivering 1.4× success-rate improvement (42.5% to 58.5%). The code is available at https://github.com/moomight/STRACE .