# An Experimental Design Approach to Evaluating Agentic AI's Autonomous Model Discovery

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.06413 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.06413/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Web, search, and research agents, one of 16 directions in LLM agents and tool use.
- Builds on 12 of its 36 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 7 Jul 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM agents and tool use / [Web, search, and research agents](https://mlsanity.com/agents/web-search-and-research-agents/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 12 of 12)

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- [Evaluating Large Language Models Trained on Code](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03374/) (2021)
- [Generative Agents: Interactive Simulacra of Human Behavior](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.03442/) (2023)
- [SWE-bench: Can Language Models Resolve Real-World GitHub Issues?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06770/) (2023)
- [Beyond the Imitation Game: Quantifying and extrapolating the capabilities of language models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.04615/) (2022)
- [The AI Scientist: Towards Fully Automated Open-Ended Scientific Discovery](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.06292/) (2024)
- [FrugalGPT: How to Use Large Language Models While Reducing Cost and Improving Performance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.05176/) (2023)
- [Out of One, Many: Using Language Models to Simulate Human Samples](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.06899/) (2022)
- [Using Large Language Models to Simulate Multiple Humans and Replicate Human Subject Studies](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.10264/) (2022)
- [MLAgentBench: Evaluating Language Agents on Machine Learning Experimentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.03302/) (2023)
- [Automated Statistical Model Discovery with Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.17879/) (2024)
- [State of AI: An Empirical 100 Trillion Token Study with OpenRouter](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.10088/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Large language model coding agents increasingly perform open-ended data modeling and analysis. These agents are stochastic and adaptive, and therefore their autonomous model discovery behavior cannot be adequately characterized by a single benchmark run. In this work, we propose an experimental design and analysis framework for systematically evaluating this discovery process, quantifying its variability, and identifying important factors. The proposed framework treats these agents as stochastic model-discovery operators, which map task-specific discovery data and an optimization target to a fitted model. Specifically, we investigate two such operators, Codex and Claude Code, under controlled experimental factors including agent's reasoning effort, task, optimization metric, and composition of training data. For each agent-task-metric combination, regression models and inference are conducted for multiple responses such as output quality, dollar cost, wall-clock time, and process complexity. Furthermore, we develop a utility-aligned canonical decomposition to characterize the dominant direction of the reasoning-effort effect and to assess whether that direction aligns with a performance-cost utility direction. The proposed framework is demonstrated on a testbed of networked word-forming games with insightful findings on reasoning effort with respect to cost and process complexity.