# CausalGame: Benchmarking Causal Thinking of LLM Agents in Games

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.04293 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.04293/

## Key facts

- Cited by 5 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Causal reasoning in LLMs, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 24 of its 117 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 5 Jul 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Causal reasoning in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/lr/causal-reasoning-in-llms/)
- LLM agents and tool use / [Medical and scientific domain agents](https://mlsanity.com/agents/medical-and-scientific-domain-agents/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 24 of 24)

- [The AI Scientist: Towards Fully Automated Open-Ended Scientific Discovery](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.06292/) (2024)
- [AlphaEvolve: A coding agent for scientific and algorithmic discovery](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.13131/) (2025)
- [Humanity's Last Exam](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.14249/) (2025)
- [The AI Scientist-v2: Workshop-Level Automated Scientific Discovery via Agentic Tree Search](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.08066/) (2025)
- [Accelerating scientific discovery with Co-Scientist](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.18864/) (2025)
- [From System 1 to System 2: A Survey of Reasoning Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.17419/) (2025)
- [Video-MMMU: Evaluating Knowledge Acquisition from Multi-Discipline Professional Videos](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.13826/) (2025)
- [Towards Causal Representation Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.11107/) (2021)
- [Deep Research Agents: A Systematic Examination And Roadmap](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.18096/) (2025)
- [DSBench: How Far Are Data Science Agents from Becoming Data Science Experts?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.07703/) (2024)
- [Agentic Large Language Models, a survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.23037/) (2025)
- [ResearchBench: Benchmarking LLMs in Scientific Discovery via Inspiration-Based Task Decomposition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.21248/) (2025)
- [Earth-Agent: Unlocking the Full Landscape of Earth Observation with Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.23141/) (2025)
- [NewtonBench: Benchmarking Generalizable Scientific Law Discovery in LLM Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.07172/) (2025)
- [HiPhO: How Far Are (M)LLMs from Humans in the Latest High School Physics Olympiad Benchmark?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.07894/) (2025)
- [Are Large Language Models Reliable AI Scientists? Assessing Reverse-Engineering of Black-Box Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.17968/) (2025)
- [AA-Omniscience: Evaluating Cross-Domain Knowledge Reliability in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.13029/) (2025)
- [AIRA_2: Overcoming Bottlenecks in AI Research Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.26499/) (2026)
- [Can Large Language Models Help Experimental Design for Causal Discovery?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.01139/) (2025)
- [Identifying Semantic Component for Robust Molecular Property Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.04837/) (2023)
- [BioDSA-1K: Benchmarking Data Science Agents for Biomedical Research](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.16100/) (2025)
- [On Information Self-Locking in Reinforcement Learning for Active Reasoning of LLM agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.12109/) (2026)
- [HiSciBench: A Hierarchical Multi-disciplinary Benchmark for Scientific Intelligence from Reading to Discovery](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.22899/) (2025)
- [Position: Intelligent Science Laboratory Requires the Integration of Cognitive and Embodied AI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.19613/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 5 of 5)

- [DiG-bench: Discovery in Games](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.12593/) (2026)
- [Rubrics on Trial: Evolving Rubrics from a Single Query via Synthetic Pairwise Evidence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.15092/) (2026)
- [CausalDS: Benchmarking Causal Reasoning in Data-Science Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.08093/) (2026)
- [WhatWorkedBench: Benchmarking Experimental Understanding in AI Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.27490/) (2026)
- [Witness: Discovery, Deciphering, and Epiphany in Interactive Puzzle Environments](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.32208/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Building AI Scientist agents with Large Language Models (LLMs) has recently attracted growing attention. Since scientific discovery fundamentally relies on uncovering causal relationships from observations, the capability of causal thinking, i.e., distinguishing causation from correlation and recognizing hidden biases, is essential to LLM agents. Although a number of benchmarks exist for AI Scientists, none explicitly incorporate challenges from selection bias, measurement error, and hidden confounders that widely exist in real-world scientific discovery. To this end, we present CausalGame, a benchmark that evaluates the causal thinking capabilities of LLM agents through interactive games. CausalGame asks LLM agents to actively design experimental protocols, collect observation data, and derive a final solution with an explanation report. To emulate realistic scientific discovery challenges, we design 14 scenarios that incorporate selection bias, measurement error, and hidden confounders. Across 30 LLM agents, none demonstrates reliable causal thinking: the best model reaches only 68.0% survival against analytical optima of 78-85%, and merely 5-7% of sessions receive credits on the causal-reasoning rubrics. CausalGame provides a scalable and controlled testbed for evaluating the causal thinking of AI Scientist agents.