# TRACER: Early Failure Detection for Task-Oriented Dialogue

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.03974 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.03974/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 14 of its 26 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 4 Jul 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 14 of 14)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [BERT: Pre-training of Deep Bidirectional Transformers for Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.04805/) (2018)
- [Exploring the Limits of Transfer Learning with a Unified Text-to-Text Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.10683/) (2019)
- [RoBERTa: A Robustly Optimized BERT Pretraining Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.11692/) (2019)
- [MultiWOZ -- A Large-Scale Multi-Domain Wizard-of-Oz Dataset for Task-Oriented Dialogue Modelling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.00278/) (2018)
- [Towards Scalable Multi-domain Conversational Agents: The Schema-Guided Dialogue Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.05855/) (2019)
- [A Simple Language Model for Task-Oriented Dialogue](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.00796/) (2020)
- [Deep Reinforcement Learning for Dialogue Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.01541/) (2016)
- [A Network-based End-to-End Trainable Task-oriented Dialogue System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1604.04562/) (2016)
- [Transferable Multi-Domain State Generator for Task-Oriented Dialogue Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.08743/) (2019)
- [TOD-BERT: Pre-trained Natural Language Understanding for Task-Oriented Dialogue](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.06871/) (2020)
- [Trouble on the Horizon: Forecasting the Derailment of Online Conversations as they Develop](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.01362/) (2019)
- [End-to-end Task-oriented Dialogue: A Survey of Tasks, Methods, and Future Directions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.09008/) (2023)
- [TD-EVAL: Revisiting Task-Oriented Dialogue Evaluation by Combining Turn-Level Precision with Dialogue-Level Comparisons](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.19982/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Task-oriented dialogue systems often fail before the final breakdown is obvious, but most evaluation only measures failure after the conversation has already gone wrong. We present TRACER, a method for early failure detection in task-oriented dialogue. TRACER predicts from a partial dialogue whether the full conversation will eventually fail by combining simple trajectory signals from belief-state changes with text representations of the evolving dialogue state. We evaluate the method in both oracle and generated belief-state settings, and test how well it works when only 25%, 50%, 75%, or 100% of the dialogue is visible. Across these settings, TRACER detects useful failure signals well before the end of the conversation and outperforms heuristic, classical, and single-stream baselines. These results suggest that early failure detection can provide a practical warning signal for dialogue systems before the interaction fully breaks down.