# Sequential Correlations Change In-Context Learning: Effective Context Length and Architectural Mismatch

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.03660 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.03660/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 48 of its 57 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 4 Jul 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 48)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08774/) (2023)
- [LLaMA: Open and Efficient Foundation Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.13971/) (2023)
- [Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.11903/) (2022)
- [Sparks of Artificial General Intelligence: Early experiments with GPT-4](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.12712/) (2023)
- [Emergent Abilities of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.07682/) (2022)
- [In-context Learning and Induction Heads](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.11895/) (2022)
- [Transformers learn in-context by gradient descent](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.07677/) (2022)
- [What Can Transformers Learn In-Context? A Case Study of Simple Function Classes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.01066/) (2022)
- [What learning algorithm is in-context learning? Investigations with linear models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.15661/) (2022)
- [Larger language models do in-context learning differently](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.03846/) (2023)
- [Trained Transformers Learn Linear Models In-Context](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.09927/) (2023)
- [Transformers as Statisticians: Provable In-Context Learning with In-Context Algorithm Selection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.04637/) (2023)
- [Transformers learn to implement preconditioned gradient descent for in-context learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.00297/) (2023)
- [One Step of Gradient Descent is Provably the Optimal In-Context Learner with One Layer of Linear Self-Attention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.03576/) (2023)
- [Pretraining task diversity and the emergence of non-Bayesian in-context learning for regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.15063/) (2023)
- [What and How does In-Context Learning Learn? Bayesian Model Averaging, Parameterization, and Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.19420/) (2023)
- [The mechanistic basis of data dependence and abrupt learning in an in-context classification task](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.03002/) (2023)
- [The Evolution of Statistical Induction Heads: In-Context Learning Markov Chains](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.11004/) (2024)
- [How Transformers Learn Causal Structure with Gradient Descent](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.14735/) (2024)
- [General-Purpose In-Context Learning by Meta-Learning Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.04458/) (2022)
- [How Many Pretraining Tasks Are Needed for In-Context Learning of Linear Regression?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.08391/) (2023)
- [The Transient Nature of Emergent In-Context Learning in Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.08360/) (2023)
- [Asymptotic theory of in-context learning by linear attention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.11751/) (2024)
- [Competition Dynamics Shape Algorithmic Phases of In-Context Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.01003/) (2024)
- [Transformers Learn to Achieve Second-Order Convergence Rates for In-Context Linear Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.17086/) (2023)
- [Training Dynamics of In-Context Learning in Linear Attention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.16265/) (2025)
- [Learning to grok: Emergence of in-context learning and skill composition in modular arithmetic tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.02550/) (2024)
- [LLMs learn governing principles of dynamical systems, revealing an in-context neural scaling law](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.00795/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [In-context classification: Calibration and noise in linear attention with softmax readout](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.17061/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Modern sequence models have a striking capacity for in-context learning (ICL); they can perform new tasks based only on examples given in the prompt. Understanding how this ability emerges requires theory that captures important properties of natural data. Linear regression has served as a useful sandbox for ICL theory, but existing work has largely focused on prompts with independent examples. In this work, we extend this setting to sequentially correlated data, a basic feature of real sequences. We present a solvable model based on linear attention and test our predictions on realistic transformer architectures. We identify two distinct effects: First, when the query token is independent of the context, within-context correlations induce an effective context length: correlated prompts behave like shorter i.i.d. prompts. Second, when the query is also correlated with its context, test error is reduced, particularly for softmax attention when compared to linear attention. These results suggest that correlated prompts alter not only the effective sample size of in-context learning, but also which attention architectures are best matched to the task.