# Surprise as a Signal for Plasticity and Metacognition

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.31495 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.31495/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 14 of its 20 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 30 Jun 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 14 of 14)

- [DINOv2: Learning Robust Visual Features without Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.07193/) (2023)
- [Qwen2.5-VL Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.13923/) (2025)
- [Overcoming catastrophic forgetting in neural networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.00796/) (2016)
- [Sigmoid Loss for Language Image Pre-Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.15343/) (2023)
- [Prototypical Networks for Few-shot Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.05175/) (2017)
- [Matching Networks for One Shot Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.04080/) (2016)
- [MemGPT: Towards LLMs as Operating Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.08560/) (2023)
- [M3-Embedding: Multi-Linguality, Multi-Functionality, Multi-Granularity Text Embeddings Through Self-Knowledge Distillation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03216/) (2024)
- [Self-Supervised Learning from Images with a Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.08243/) (2023)
- [Titans: Learning to Memorize at Test Time](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.00663/) (2024)
- [Yo'LLaVA: Your Personalized Language and Vision Assistant](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.09400/) (2024)
- [MyVLM: Personalizing VLMs for User-Specific Queries](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.14599/) (2024)
- [Larimar: Large Language Models with Episodic Memory Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.11901/) (2024)
- [SCM: Sleep-Consolidated Memory with Algorithmic Forgetting for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.20943/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We study a single idea across two settings: that a prediction-error signal, computed by a small predictor over the latent space of a frozen encoder, can serve both as a gate on plasticity and as a substrate for metacognition. In the first system, a non-parametric episodic memory writes a new concept only when this surprise is high, and a periodic offline replay phase consolidates recent traces into a slow linear readout. On a continual stream of 1000 ImageNet classes with a frozen DINOv2 or I-JEPA backbone, the consolidation phase recovers 17.7 points of retention on the oldest classes for DINOv2 and 51.3 points for I-JEPA (single-seed runs), and an ablation shows that replaying only a recent window is worse than no replay at all. In few-shot evaluation the same memory reaches 91.6% on 5-way 1-shot mini-ImageNet, above a task-specific baseline, while a harder 500-way regime exposes the true difficulty. In the second system, the same surprise signal, computed in a shared text-image space, modulates the behaviour of a vision-language model: it answers assertively when a concept is known, hedges when it is partially familiar, and refuses to identify the object and asks for an explanation when it is novel, learning the concept from a single user utterance. The external detector separates known from novel concepts at an AUROC of 0.966 (95% CI +/-0.024), far above the model's own verbalised confidence (0.618), while its token-level confidence sits below chance under greedy decoding; after a sleep phase that empties the fast store, the system recalls 99.2% of fifty taught facts from the consolidated store while a base model recovers none. We report both systems as proof-of-concept, with explicit limitations, and position the second against recent episodic-memory and personalised-VLM work.