# The Fundamental Limits of Valid Transport Map Estimation

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.30574 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.30574/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Flow matching, time series and science, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models.
- Builds on 17 of its 28 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 29 Jun 2026.

## Placed in

- Diffusion models / [Flow matching, time series and science](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/flow-matching-time-series-and-science/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 17 of 17)

- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [Score-Based Generative Modeling through Stochastic Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.13456/) (2020)
- [Deep Unsupervised Learning using Nonequilibrium Thermodynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1503.03585/) (2015)
- [Flow Matching for Generative Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02747/) (2022)
- [Flow Straight and Fast: Learning to Generate and Transfer Data with Rectified Flow](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.03003/) (2022)
- [Variational Inference with Normalizing Flows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.05770/) (2015)
- [Density estimation using Real NVP](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1605.08803/) (2016)
- [Normalizing Flows for Probabilistic Modeling and Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.02762/) (2019)
- [Stochastic Interpolants: A Unifying Framework for Flows and Diffusions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08797/) (2023)
- [Plugin Estimation of Smooth Optimal Transport Maps](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.12364/) (2021)
- [Rates of Estimation of Optimal Transport Maps using Plug-in Estimators via Barycentric Projections](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.01718/) (2021)
- [Quantitative stability of optimal transport maps and linearization of the 2-Wasserstein space](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.05954/) (2019)
- [Optimal transport map estimation in general function spaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.03722/) (2022)
- [Statistical Properties of Rectified Flow](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.03193/) (2025)
- [Stability Bounds for Smooth Optimal Transport Maps and their Statistical Implications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.12326/) (2025)
- [Unstable optimal transport maps](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.13265/) (2025)
- [Statistical Inference for Optimal Transport Maps: Recent Advances and Perspectives](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.19025/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Many modern generative modeling methods, including diffusion models, normalizing flows, and flow matching, estimate transport maps or plans between distributions without explicitly targeting an optimal transport (OT) map. In applications like generative modeling, the transport cost itself is irrelevant, and this makes it natural to target maps which are more tractable from either a statistical or computational standpoint. In this short note, we formalize the task of estimating any valid transport map in a rigorous minimax framework. One consequence of this framing is that it yields sample complexity lower bounds for any method whose learned object is evaluated as a transport map or plan, including flow matching and diffusion-based generative models, in settings where direct analysis would be challenging due to the analytic complexity of the methods and their target maps. We observe that, under standard, though strong, stability assumptions from the OT literature, estimating any valid transport map is statistically as hard as estimating the OT map. We complement these results with some examples showing that when these stability assumptions fail, alternative transport maps can be learned substantially more accurately than the OT map. Our minimax framing provides a rigorous foundation for understanding the statistical limits of modern transport-based generative methods and clarifies when targeting sub-optimal maps can provide real statistical advantages.