# Diversity is the Strength of the AI Crowd

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.29661 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.29661/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 6 of its 16 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 29 Jun 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 6 of 6)

- [ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.19839/) (2024)
- [Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.18563/) (2024)
- [FutureX: An Advanced Live Benchmark for LLM Agents in Future Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.11987/) (2025)
- [Outcome-based Reinforcement Learning to Predict the Future](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.17989/) (2025)
- [LLMs Can Teach Themselves to Better Predict the Future](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.05253/) (2025)
- [Agentic Forecasting using Sequential Bayesian Updating of Linguistic Beliefs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.18576/) (2026)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [LLM-based Agents for Forecasting and Prediction: Methods, Training, Evaluation, and Applications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.23058/) (2026)
- [Two Heads Are Better Than One: Aggregating Weaker LLMs for Better Forecasts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.33257/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Top AI forecasting systems are approaching superforecaster-level accuracy on future world events, but still rely primarily on off-the-shelf LLMs combined with forecasting-specific context gathering and scaffolding. We study how to improve this recipe through ensembling: given a fixed number of samples, which off-the-shelf model forecasts should be combined to maximize accuracy? On binary questions from the Metaculus AI Benchmark, we find that individual accuracy is not enough: many frontier LLMs make highly correlated predictions, limiting the value of additional forecasts from the same or similar models. Instead, the strongest ensembles combine accurate but diverse forecasters, with models such as modelGrok 4 contributing disproportionately because their predictions are less correlated with other frontier LLMs. These results suggest that the strength of the AI crowd comes not from sampling more forecasts indiscriminately, but from combining forecasts across models with complementary errors, motivating forecasting systems that explicitly optimize for both model quality and diversity.