# Self-Organized Conformal Prediction: Reducing Regional Coverage Gaps with Unsupervised Group Discovery

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.29403 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.29403/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 22 of its 41 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 28 Jun 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 22 of 22)

- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [ImageNet Large Scale Visual Recognition Challenge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.0575/) (2014)
- [UMAP: Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection for Dimension Reduction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.03426/) (2018)
- [A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.07511/) (2021)
- [Distribution-Free Predictive Inference For Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1604.04173/) (2016)
- [Conformalized Quantile Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.03222/) (2019)
- [Classification with Valid and Adaptive Coverage](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.02544/) (2020)
- [Uncertainty Sets for Image Classifiers using Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.14193/) (2020)
- [Least Ambiguous Set-Valued Classifiers with Bounded Error Levels](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.00451/) (2016)
- [Conformal Prediction With Conditional Guarantees](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.12616/) (2023)
- [Localized Conformal Prediction: A Generalized Inference Framework for Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.08460/) (2021)
- [Class-Conditional Conformal Prediction with Many Classes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.09335/) (2023)
- [Conformal Prediction using Conditional Histograms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.08747/) (2021)
- [Conformal Prediction for Deep Classifier via Label Ranking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06430/) (2023)
- [Conformal prediction with local weights: randomization enables local guarantees](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.07850/) (2023)
- [Split Localized Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.13092/) (2022)
- [Rectifying Conformity Scores for Better Conditional Coverage](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.16336/) (2025)
- [Group-Weighted Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.17452/) (2024)
- [Kandinsky Conformal Prediction: Beyond Class- and Covariate-Conditional Coverage](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.17264/) (2025)
- [Conditional Coverage Diagnostics for Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.11779/) (2025)
- [Conformal Prediction Sets with Improved Conditional Coverage using Trust Scores](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.10139/) (2025)
- [torchsom: The Reference PyTorch Library for Self-Organizing Maps](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.11147/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Conformal prediction guarantees marginal coverage, but a pooled calibration quantile can hide systematic undercoverage across heterogeneous regions of the feature space. We introduce Self-Organized Conformal Prediction (SOCP), a calibration scheme that discovers input-space groups with an unsupervised Self-Organizing Map (SOM) trained without calibration data. At prediction time, the query's best-matching unit (BMU) retrieves a calibration buffer from one cell, a fixed grid neighborhood, or a prototype enlargement (Regimes 1 to 3). When fixed neighborhoods are too sparse, Regime 3 adds cells by prototype distance, using a global budget selected from training cell occupancies and the planned calibration size before any calibration score is observed. The predictor and nonconformity score remain unchanged. Cell-only retrieval has exact cell-conditional validity, and each fixed union of cells has exact retrieved-set validity. Interpreting a neighborhood threshold at its central cell incurs an explicit Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) bias term. Across ten regression and classification benchmarks, SOCP lowers the mean weighted coverage gap (WCovGap) relative to pooled split conformal prediction (SCP) on all ten datasets. The mean relative change is -14.8%, with a mean increase of 3.0% in output size. Under fixed-neighborhood retrieval, SO calibration lowers mean WCovGap across ten seeds in 43 of 50 score and dataset comparisons, while SO-SCP lowers it for every dataset at all three tested external partition granularities. These results provide local group calibration without supervised partitions or predictor retraining, while the diagnostics make the cost and limits of locality explicit. The code is available at https://github.com/LouisTier/SOCP.