# FinInvest-GTCN: Explainable Graph-Temporal-Causal Modeling for Risk-Aware Investment Decision Optimization

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.28933 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.28933/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 83 of its 86 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 27 Jun 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 83)

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## Abstract (arXiv)

Venture capital (VC) investment decisions face distinct challenges, such as multi-source heterogeneous data, non-stationary time series, and the demand for explainable predictions in high-stakes, low-data settings. To overcome these issues, we introduce FinInvest-GTCN, a Graph-Temporal-Causal Network that redefines the task from content recommendation to quantitative risk-return assessment. This architecture combines a relational graph encoder to capture the investment ecosystem's topology, a multi-scale temporal fusion module to handle long-term dependencies and non-stationarity, and a causal decision head that generates risk-adjusted predictions with interpretable causal attributions. A core innovation is the Meta-Causal Adaptation (MCA) strategy, which facilitates robust fine-tuning for new, data-scarce sectors by aligning updates with causally-plausible structures derived from meta-pretraining. Comprehensive experiments on proprietary VC datasets show that FinInvest-GTCN delivers state-of-the-art results, markedly lowering the primary Risk-Adjusted Mean Squared Error (RA-MSE) to 2.51 from a baseline of 3.05 and boosting the cumulative return of a simulated portfolio by 18.7%. Ablation studies underscore the essential role of each component, while additional analyses confirm the model's stability, interpretability, and enhanced adaptability. This work pioneers a data-driven, explainable framework for investment decision support.