# A Theoretical Interpretation of In-Context Learning via Probabilistic Modeling

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.28926 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.28926/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 15 of its 19 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 27 Jun 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 15 of 15)

- [An Explanation of In-context Learning as Implicit Bayesian Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.02080/) (2021)
- [Transformers learn in-context by gradient descent](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.07677/) (2022)
- [What Can Transformers Learn In-Context? A Case Study of Simple Function Classes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.01066/) (2022)
- [What learning algorithm is in-context learning? Investigations with linear models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.15661/) (2022)
- [Data Distributional Properties Drive Emergent In-Context Learning in Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.05055/) (2022)
- [Selective Annotation Makes Language Models Better Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.01975/) (2022)
- [Transformers as Algorithms: Generalization and Stability in In-context Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.07067/) (2023)
- [What Algorithms can Transformers Learn? A Study in Length Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.16028/) (2023)
- [What In-Context Learning "Learns" In-Context: Disentangling Task Recognition and Task Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.09731/) (2023)
- [Pretraining task diversity and the emergence of non-Bayesian in-context learning for regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.15063/) (2023)
- [Large Language Models to Enhance Bayesian Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03921/) (2024)
- [In-Context Learning with Iterative Demonstration Selection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.09881/) (2023)
- [When Large Language Model Agents Meet 6G Networks: Perception, Grounding, and Alignment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.07764/) (2024)
- [CityNavAgent: Aerial Vision-and-Language Navigation with Hierarchical Semantic Planning and Global Memory](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.05622/) (2025)
- [On Theoretical Interpretations of Concept-Based In-Context Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.20882/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

In-context learning (ICL) is an emerging paradigm that employs the semantic information inherent in large language models (LLMs) for generating answers to user queries. While the remarkable performance of ICL has been widely known, a general modeling and a rigorous theoretical analysis of this paradigm are still lacking. This work presents a probabilistic model for ICL and derives the performance of ICL for both general parametric distributions and exponential families. Based on the derived results, the work explains the impact of multiple factors such as the number of demonstrations, the sensitivity of the probabilistic model to the variation of its parameters, as well as the similarity between the demonstrations and the query on the performance of ICL.