# UC-Search: Risk-Aware Test-Time Search for Delayed Constrained Time-Series Control

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.25274 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.25274/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 15 of its 37 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 24 Jun 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 15 of 15)

- [Proximal Policy Optimization Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1707.06347/) (2017)
- [ReAct: Synergizing Reasoning and Acting in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.03629/) (2022)
- [What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04977/) (2017)
- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [Mastering Atari, Go, Chess and Shogi by Planning with a Learned Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.08265/) (2019)
- [DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04110/) (2017)
- [Deep Reinforcement Learning in a Handful of Trials using Probabilistic Dynamics Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.12114/) (2018)
- [When to Trust Your Model: Model-Based Policy Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.08253/) (2019)
- [Temporal Fusion Transformers for Interpretable Multi-horizon Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.09363/) (2019)
- [Unified Training of Universal Time Series Forecasting Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.02592/) (2024)
- [MOMENT: A Family of Open Time-series Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03885/) (2024)
- [Smart "Predict, then Optimize"](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.08005/) (2017)
- [Adaptive Conformal Predictions for Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.07282/) (2022)
- [Benchmark Dataset for Mid-Price Forecasting of Limit Order Book Data with Machine Learning Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.03233/) (2017)
- [Monte Carlo Tree Search in the Presence of Transition Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.11348/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Time-series deployments often need delayed feasible decisions, not only accurate forecasts. UC-Search is a trace-only retained-search layer for delayed constrained control: a frozen backbone emits forecasts or action scores, a hard-feasibility automaton rolls paths forward, and bounded search returns the first action of a feasible trajectory. The main claim is conditional: retained lookahead can improve delayed constrained decisions only when delayed feasible-set coupling, retained-prefix premises, and fail-closed release certificates hold. The promoted public endpoint is Phase128 certified M4 expanded40: validation selects Certificate-Constrained Retained Pareto Beam with λ=0.25, the held-out test has certificate/risk-active rates 1.0000/0.9642, and the weakest family remains above the unchanged 0.95 gate at 0.9516 on M4Weekly. The author-defined public 9-family suite remains an uncertified stress-test boundary. The paper reports a trace-only mechanism, one certified public endpoint, failed-route certificates, and deployment boundaries rather than a universal risk-control theorem.