# AeroCast: Probabilistic 3D Trajectory Prediction for Non-Cooperative Aerial Obstacles via Transformer-MDN Architecture

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.25122 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.25122/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 15 of its 32 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 23 Jun 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 15 of 15)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [SGDR: Stochastic Gradient Descent with Warm Restarts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1608.03983/) (2016)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [nuScenes: A multimodal dataset for autonomous driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.11027/) (2019)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04977/) (2017)
- [On Layer Normalization in the Transformer Architecture](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.04745/) (2020)
- [Social GAN: Socially Acceptable Trajectories with Generative Adversarial Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.10892/) (2018)
- [Large Scale Interactive Motion Forecasting for Autonomous Driving : The Waymo Open Motion Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.10133/) (2021)
- [AgentFormer: Agent-Aware Transformers for Socio-Temporal Multi-Agent Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.14023/) (2021)
- [Back to MLP: A Simple Baseline for Human Motion Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.01567/) (2022)
- [Propagating State Uncertainty Through Trajectory Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.03267/) (2021)
- [EGO-Swarm: A Fully Autonomous and Decentralized Quadrotor Swarm System in Cluttered Environments](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.04183/) (2020)
- [VECTOR: Velocity-Enhanced GRU Neural Network for Real-Time 3D UAV Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.23305/) (2024)
- [NanoBench: A Multi-Task Benchmark Dataset for Nano-Quadrotor System Identification, Control, and State Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.09908/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Autonomous aerial vehicles operating in shared airspace must predict the future positions of non-cooperative obstacles to plan evasive maneuvers before a collision becomes unavoidable. Unlike cooperative systems that share intent, non-cooperative obstacles such as birds, uncontrolled drones, or debris exhibit multi-modal motion that deterministic predictors cannot adequately represent. Existing methods either rely on recurrent encoders that propagate temporal information sequentially, limiting their ability to capture long-range kinematic precursors of maneuver initiation, or produce point forecasts that provide no distributional information to downstream planners. This paper presents AeroCast, a probabilistic trajectory prediction framework that combines a Transformer encoder with a Mixture Density Network output head to predict per-timestep Gaussian mixture distributions over future three-dimensional displacements. A translation-invariant consecutive displacement encoding and a calibration-oriented training objective address the input design and mode-degeneracy challenges specific to mixture-based aerial trajectory prediction. On a hybrid real-and-synthetic quadrotor corpus spanning nine motion categories, AeroCast reduces Average Displacement Error and Final Displacement Error by approximately 50% relative to the baselines over a five-second horizon, and achieves the lowest negative log-likelihood and Continuous Ranked Probability Score among all compared methods. Ablation analysis identifies velocity input and model capacity as the primary contributors to prediction quality, and positional encoding as essential for long-horizon trajectory coherence. AeroCast inference completes in 0.1ms per sample, compatible with real-time onboard deployment at 100Hz.