# MacroLens: A Multi-Task Benchmark for Contextual Financial Reasoning under Macroeconomic Scenarios

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.24950 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.24950/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Reasoning for agents, planning and code, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 24 of its 45 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 23 Jun 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Reasoning for agents, planning and code](https://mlsanity.com/lr/reasoning-for-agents-planning-and-code/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 24 of 24)

- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [Datasheets for Datasets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.09010/) (2018)
- [iTransformer: Inverted Transformers Are Effective for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06625/) (2023)
- [A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10688/) (2023)
- [Unified Training of Universal Time Series Forecasting Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.02592/) (2024)
- [Monash Time Series Forecasting Archive](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.06643/) (2021)
- [TFB: Towards Comprehensive and Fair Benchmarking of Time Series Forecasting Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.20150/) (2024)
- [GIFT-Eval: A Benchmark For General Time Series Forecasting Model Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.10393/) (2024)
- [Chronos-2: From Univariate to Universal Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.15821/) (2025)
- [FinBen: A Holistic Financial Benchmark for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.12659/) (2024)
- [ChatTime: A Unified Multimodal Time Series Foundation Model Bridging Numerical and Textual Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.11376/) (2024)
- [Context is Key: A Benchmark for Forecasting with Essential Textual Information](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.18959/) (2024)
- [Time-MQA: Time Series Multi-Task Question Answering with Context Enhancement](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.01875/) (2025)
- [Croissant: A Metadata Format for ML-Ready Datasets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.19546/) (2024)
- [Time-MMD: Multi-Domain Multimodal Dataset for Time Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.08627/) (2024)
- [Moirai 2.0: When Less Is More for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.11698/) (2025)
- [MTBench: A Multimodal Time Series Benchmark for Temporal Reasoning and Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.16858/) (2025)
- [FinTSB: A Comprehensive and Practical Benchmark for Financial Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.18834/) (2025)
- [Multi-Modal Forecaster: Jointly Predicting Time Series and Textual Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.06735/) (2024)
- [Intervention-Aware Forecasting: Breaking Historical Limits from a System Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.13522/) (2024)
- [SciTS: Scientific Time Series Understanding and Generation with LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.03255/) (2025)
- [Fin-RATE: A Real-world Financial Analytics and Tracking Evaluation Benchmark for LLMs on SEC Filings](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.07294/) (2026)
- [EDINET-Bench: Evaluating LLMs on Complex Financial Tasks using Japanese Financial Statements](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.08762/) (2025)
- [Multimodal Language Models with Modality-Specific Experts for Financial Forecasting from Interleaved Sequences of Text and Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.19628/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Financial decision-making is contextual: forecasting prices, valuing companies, and assessing event exposure weigh price history, accounting fundamentals, macroeconomic regime, and contemporaneous text. A benchmark over these four signals is hard to build because finance violates four assumptions of time-series evaluation: text must be gated by its publication date to prevent look-ahead, quarterly fundamentals are reported with a one- to ninety-day lag, filing text is partly redundant with the numerical statement fields it accompanies, and macroeconomic regimes leak across calendar splits. No public benchmark addresses all four signals jointly. MacroLens covers 4,416 U.S. small- and micro-cap equities over 2021-2026. Seven tasks share one point-in-time panel of prices, 46.8M XBRL accounting facts, 53 macroeconomic series, 295,860 SEC filings, and 215,882 news articles, plus a scenario layer of 1,130 macroeconomic events across 49 types automatically detected and rendered as natural language. Tasks span contextual forecasting, public and private valuation, statement generation from fundamentals and descriptions, scenario-conditioned returns, and real-estate valuation. We evaluate 19 methods across six families spanning naive heuristics through time-series foundation models, fine-tuned LLM-based time-series models, and zero-shot large language models (LLMs), plus a five-step feature-context ablation on two frontier LLMs and a gradient-boosted baseline. MacroLens is released at https://huggingface.co/datasets/DeepAuto-AI/MacroLens.