# Signed Evidence Flow: Conflict-Aware and Stability-Calibrated Data Analysis

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.21875 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.21875/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 15 of its 25 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 20 Jun 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 15 of 15)

- [A Unified Approach to Interpreting Model Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07874/) (2017)
- ["Why Should I Trust You?": Explaining the Predictions of Any Classifier](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1602.04938/) (2016)
- [Axiomatic Attribution for Deep Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.01365/) (2017)
- [Towards A Rigorous Science of Interpretable Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1702.08608/) (2017)
- [Selective Classification for Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.08500/) (2017)
- [A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.07511/) (2021)
- [All Models are Wrong, but Many are Useful: Learning a Variable's Importance by Studying an Entire Class of Prediction Models Simultaneously](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1801.01489/) (2018)
- [SelectiveNet: A Deep Neural Network with an Integrated Reject Option](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.09192/) (2019)
- [Interpretable machine learning: definitions, methods, and applications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.04592/) (2019)
- [Distribution-Free, Risk-Controlling Prediction Sets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.02703/) (2021)
- [Visualizing the Effects of Predictor Variables in Black Box Supervised Learning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.08468/) (2016)
- [ToolChain-CRC: Conformal Risk Control for Agentic AI Under Retrieval and Tool-Use Drift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.18467/) (2026)
- [Drift-Aware Spectral Conformal Prediction for Non-Exchangeable Streaming Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.15953/) (2026)
- [PromptShift-CRC: Drift-Aware Conformal Risk Control for Foundation Models Under Prompt and Domain Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.15964/) (2026)
- [Spectral Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Structured Non-Exchangeable Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.15950/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Modern data analysis usually gives a prediction without showing whether the evidence behind it is clear, conflicting, or stable. Two cases can have the same fitted confidence even when one has mostly agreeing evidence and the other has strong support and strong opposition. We propose Signed Evidence Flow (SEF), which combines a fitted prediction rule with signed feature attributions to measure support, opposition, conflict, and perturbation stability. We prove that confidence determines conflict exactly when it also determines total evidence mass, derive the remaining conditional variance, and state when conflict can improve loss prediction beyond confidence and other audit variables. We also connect conflict to geometric decision fragility. Across healthcare, Covertype, black-box, finance, and ten external data sets, conflict sometimes separates risk among predictions that already appear confident. Cross-fitted tests show added error-ranking information beyond confidence and attribution entropy on several data sets, including two large finance tasks. The direction is not universal: in some tasks, lowconflict cases are riskier. We therefore introduce ScopeGate, a held-out permutation diagnostic that checks the direction before SEF is used for review triage. SEF is consequently an audit tool rather than a universal risk score: it describes evidence structure, while an independent calibration sample determines whether that structure is useful in the target population.