# Causal Gaussian Processes for Robust Treatment Effect Evaluation with Unobserved Confounding

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.21809 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.21809/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 12 of its 48 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 20 Jun 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 12 of 12)

- [Variational Inference: A Review for Statisticians](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1601.00670/) (2016)
- [Stein Variational Gradient Descent: A General Purpose Bayesian Inference Algorithm](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1608.04471/) (2016)
- [Data-Efficient Off-Policy Policy Evaluation for Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1604.00923/) (2016)
- [Safe and Efficient Off-Policy Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.02647/) (2016)
- [Automatic Differentiation Variational Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.00788/) (2016)
- [CausalGAN: Learning Causal Implicit Generative Models with Adversarial Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.02023/) (2017)
- [Sticking the Landing: Simple, Lower-Variance Gradient Estimators for Variational Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.09194/) (2017)
- [The Causal-Neural Connection: Expressiveness, Learnability, and Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.00793/) (2021)
- [Confounding-Robust Policy Improvement](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.08593/) (2018)
- [Counterfactual Probabilities: Computational Methods, Bounds and Applications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1302.6784/) (2013)
- [Neural Causal Models for Counterfactual Identification and Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.00035/) (2022)
- [Counterfactual Identifiability of Bijective Causal Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.02228/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The presence of confounding bias poses a key challenge in policy evaluation, as the target causal effects of actions are not identifiable (i.e., underdetermined) from observational data. On the other hand, existing confounding-robust evaluation strategies require detailed prior knowledge about the environment or apply only to discrete treatments and outcomes. This paper investigates causal effect evaluation over the continuous domain from confounded observations, while requiring only basic temporal ordering between the treatment and the outcome. We introduce a universal discretization of the exogenous domains that approximates the observational and interventional distributions of any causal model with arbitrary accuracy using a finite number of latent states. Building on this newfound universal approximation property, we develop a novel family of Causal Gaussian process (CGP) models that effectively approximate the observational and interventional distributions of any causal model with confounded observations.