# Spatio-Temporal Wildfire Spread Prediction in Canada using a Video Swin-Hybrid-U-Net and Satellite Imagery

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.20693 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.20693/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 9 of its 34 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 15 Jun 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 9 of 9)

- [U-Net: Convolutional Networks for Biomedical Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.04597/) (2015)
- [SGDR: Stochastic Gradient Descent with Warm Restarts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1608.03983/) (2016)
- [Feature Pyramid Networks for Object Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.03144/) (2016)
- [Swin-Unet: Unet-like Pure Transformer for Medical Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.05537/) (2021)
- [Video Swin Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13230/) (2021)
- [Generalised Dice overlap as a deep learning loss function for highly unbalanced segmentations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1707.03237/) (2017)
- [Evaluation: from precision, recall and F-measure to ROC, informedness, markedness and correlation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.16061/) (2020)
- [A review of machine learning applications in wildfire science and management](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.00646/) (2020)
- [Checkerboard artifact free sub-pixel convolution: A note on sub-pixel convolution, resize convolution and convolution resize](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1707.02937/) (2017)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Random Forest-Informed Cellular Automaton for Large-Scale Wildfire Spread Modelling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.01675/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Background: Wildfires in Canada present increasing threats to ecosystems, communities, and infrastructure, demanding accurate forecasting tools to aid mitigation efforts. Existing models often lack scalability or fail to capture temporal dynamics effectively. Aims: This study aims to develop a deep learning framework tailored to Canadian wildfire spread prediction that captures spatio-temporal patterns in environmental data. Methods: We propose a U-Net architecture integrating a Video Swin Transformer encoder with a convolutional decoder to model three-day sequences of meteorological and environmental variables. Data are exclusively sourced from public repositories via Google Earth Engine, ensuring transparency and scalability. The model is trained and tested on a curated dataset of major Canadian wildfire events from 2014 to 2023. Key results: Our approach achieves strong predictive performance by effectively leveraging spatio-temporal attention to forecast next-day fire incidence maps. Conclusions: The model successfully captures complex wildfire dynamics unique to Canada's landscape and temporal variability. Implications: This framework paves the way for advanced spatio-temporal wildfire forecasting research and operational applications using publicly accessible datasets.