# Confidence Laundering in Agent Systems: Why Uncertainty Needs a Latent Carrier

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.20662 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.20662/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 56 of its 66 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 9 Jun 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 56)

- [Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Knowledge-Intensive NLP Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.11401/) (2020)
- [ReAct: Synergizing Reasoning and Acting in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.03629/) (2022)
- [Self-Consistency Improves Chain of Thought Reasoning in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.11171/) (2022)
- [Toolformer: Language Models Can Teach Themselves to Use Tools](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.04761/) (2023)
- [Tree of Thoughts: Deliberate Problem Solving with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.10601/) (2023)
- [Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05221/) (2022)
- [Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13063/) (2023)
- [Semantic Uncertainty: Linguistic Invariances for Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.09664/) (2023)
- [Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14975/) (2023)
- [SelfCheckGPT: Zero-Resource Black-Box Hallucination Detection for Generative Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08896/) (2023)
- [Training Large Language Models to Reason in a Continuous Latent Space](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.06769/) (2024)
- [Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Words](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.14334/) (2022)
- [The Internal State of an LLM Knows When It's Lying](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.13734/) (2023)
- [Active Retrieval Augmented Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.06983/) (2023)
- [How Language Model Hallucinations Can Snowball](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.13534/) (2023)
- [Robots That Ask For Help: Uncertainty Alignment for Large Language Model Planners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.01928/) (2023)
- [Generating with Confidence: Uncertainty Quantification for Black-box Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.19187/) (2023)
- [Semantic Entropy Probes: Robust and Cheap Hallucination Detection in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.15927/) (2024)
- [Learning to Reason without External Rewards](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.19590/) (2025)
- [Agentic Reinforced Policy Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.19849/) (2025)
- [Kernel Language Entropy: Fine-grained Uncertainty Quantification for LLMs from Semantic Similarities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.20003/) (2024)
- [Where LLM Agents Fail and How They can Learn From Failures](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.25370/) (2025)
- [LM-Polygraph: Uncertainty Estimation for Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.07383/) (2023)
- [A Survey on Uncertainty Quantification of Large Language Models: Taxonomy, Open Research Challenges, and Future Directions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.05563/) (2024)
- [Uncertainty Quantification and Confidence Calibration in Large Language Models: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.15850/) (2025)
- [The Obvious Invisible Threat: LLM-Powered GUI Agents' Vulnerability to Fine-Print Injections](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.11281/) (2025)
- [Let Models Speak Ciphers: Multiagent Debate through Embeddings](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06272/) (2023)
- [First Return, Entropy-Eliciting Explore](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.07017/) (2025)
- [Detecting Hallucinations in Large Language Model Generation: A Token Probability Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.19648/) (2024)
- [UProp: Investigating the Uncertainty Propagation of LLMs in Multi-Step Agentic Decision-Making](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.17419/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [From Sequence to Structure: Relational Uncertainty Propagation for LLM Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.16002/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Modern agent systems can turn uncertainty into overconfidence. Fragile upstream decisions are often exposed to downstream components as clean intermediate artifacts, while the uncertainty behind those decisions is lost at the interface. As a result, local ambiguity can become system-level error amplification. We argue that this reveals an interface bottleneck in agent uncertainty propagation: uncertainty does not propagate simply because a trajectory contains uncertain steps; it propagates only when it survives the handoff between components. We define uncertain decision handoff as the transfer of an intermediate decision made under uncertainty, and identify confidence laundering as a failure mode in which fragile upstream states are repackaged as procedurally valid artifacts that downstream agents over-trust. To address this bottleneck, we propose latent uncertainty as an uncertainty-bearing carrier attached to decision handoffs. Rather than replacing text with hidden states, latent uncertainty aims to preserve pre-commitment fragility in a form that downstream components can use. This position shifts agent uncertainty propagation from step-wise uncertainty estimation toward uncertainty-preserving interface design for more recoverable agent systems.