# Analysing drivers and interdependencies in European electricity markets using XAI

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.19118 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.19118/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 10 of its 41 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 17 Jun 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 10 of 10)

- [A Unified Approach to Interpreting Model Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07874/) (2017)
- [Towards A Rigorous Science of Interpretable Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1702.08608/) (2017)
- [All Models are Wrong, but Many are Useful: Learning a Variable's Importance by Studying an Entire Class of Prediction Models Simultaneously](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1801.01489/) (2018)
- [Consistent Individualized Feature Attribution for Tree Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.03888/) (2018)
- [Benchmarking and Survey of Explanation Methods for Black Box Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.13076/) (2021)
- [True to the Model or True to the Data?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.16234/) (2020)
- [Algorithms to estimate Shapley value feature attributions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.07605/) (2022)
- [Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: A review of state-of-the-art algorithms, best practices and an open-access benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.08004/) (2020)
- [Understanding electricity prices beyond the merit order principle using explainable AI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.04805/) (2022)
- [Explaining deep neural network models for electricity price forecasting with XAI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.19894/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Electricity markets are inherently complex systems characterised by strong nonlinearities, high-dimensional interactions, and increasing interdependence across regions. While deep neural networks (DNNs) have demonstrated strong predictive capabilities for electricity prices, their lack of interpretability limits their usefulness for understanding the underlying drivers of price formation. This paper addresses this gap by combining DNN models with explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques to analyse the determinants of electricity prices across 39 European bidding zones. We employ SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) to quantify feature contributions and apply and extend SSHAP, an aggregation framework to improve interpretability in high-dimensional settings. The analysis identifies that renewable energy sources, particularly solar, play a disproportionately important role in price formation despite their lower share in total power generation. Gas prices remain a dominant and consistent driver across electricity markets, while interconnections significantly shape price dynamics, highlighting the strong interdependence of European electricity systems. In addition, a synthetic EU-wide electricity market is constructed to explore the counterfactual scenario of a fully integrated market with a single price.