# Investigating Inductive Biases for Machine Learning Emulation of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in Idealised Isca Simulations

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.18857 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.18857/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 8 of its 47 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 17 Jun 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 8 of 8)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [U-Net: Convolutional Networks for Biomedical Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.04597/) (2015)
- [Swin Transformer: Hierarchical Vision Transformer using Shifted Windows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.14030/) (2021)
- [FourCastNet: A Global Data-driven High-resolution Weather Model using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.11214/) (2022)
- [Neural General Circulation Models for Weather and Climate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.07222/) (2023)
- [Deep learning to represent sub-grid processes in climate models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.04731/) (2018)
- [Improving data-driven global weather prediction using deep convolutional neural networks on a cubed sphere](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.11927/) (2020)
- [Sub-seasonal forecasting with a large ensemble of deep-learning weather prediction models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.05107/) (2021)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Evaluating Dynamical Fidelity through Predictive Structure in Physical Representations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.34627/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Machine-learning emulators are increasingly used for weather prediction and have the potential to extend skill on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales by learning dynamically important sources of predictability. A key challenge is whether the models can exploit predictability anchors, such as stratospheric variability, that influence tropospheric circulation beyond short lead times. We test how architectural inductive bias affects emulation of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) dynamics using paired idealised Isca simulations that differ only in an imposed wave-2 heating perturbation. Across convolutional, transformer, and graph-based architectures trained for one-step prediction, model differences are modest when the stratosphere is dynamically quiet but widen substantially when SSW-like variability is active. Our results identify explicit three-dimensional vertical coupling as a key inductive bias for machine-learning emulation of stratospheric dynamics. However, Eliassen-Palm flux diagnostics show that low forecast error does not guarantee physically faithful wave-mean-flow interaction, with coherent errors remaining in stratospheric wave-driving structure.