# Public transit gains and spatially uneven travel demand changes after NYC congestion pricing

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.17530 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.17530/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 4 of its 86 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 16 Jun 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 4 of 4)

- [Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.07815/) (2024)
- [A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10688/) (2023)
- [Calibration of Time-Series Forecasting: Detecting and Adapting Context-Driven Distribution Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.14838/) (2023)
- [SAUC: Sparsity-Aware Uncertainty Calibration for Spatiotemporal Prediction with Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.08766/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

New York City implemented the nation's first cordon-based congestion pricing program in January 2025, providing an opportunity to evaluate how system-wide urban mobility responds to large-scale pricing interventions. Because such policies generate spillovers across modes and locations, credible control groups are difficult to construct. We address this challenge using time series foundation models to generate probabilistic counterfactual demand forecasts with calibrated uncertainty. Applying this framework to bus, subway, and aggregate trip volume data, we find that post-policy bus and subway ridership increased significantly relative to expected no-policy demand, while overall travel demand decreased modestly. The effects are spatially heterogeneous: while reductions in overall travel demand are concentrated within the Congestion Relief Zone, transit gains extend beyond Manhattan's core. Socio-demographic analyses further reveal uneven adaptation across neighborhoods, highlighting spatial equity implications. Our framework provides a scalable approach for the uncertainty-aware evaluation of system-wide urban interventions when clean control groups are unavailable.