# RAID: Semantic Graph Diffusion for True Cold-Start and Cross-Lingual Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.16925 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.16925/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 27 of its 34 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 15 Jun 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 27 of 27)

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- [Graph Attention Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.10903/) (2017)
- [Scalable Diffusion Models with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.09748/) (2022)
- [Qwen2.5 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.15115/) (2024)
- [Mistral 7B](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06825/) (2023)
- [FiLM: Visual Reasoning with a General Conditioning Layer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.07871/) (2017)
- [M3-Embedding: Multi-Linguality, Multi-Functionality, Multi-Granularity Text Embeddings Through Self-Knowledge Distillation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03216/) (2024)
- [DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04110/) (2017)
- [How Attentive are Graph Attention Networks?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.14491/) (2021)
- [Temporal Fusion Transformers for Interpretable Multi-horizon Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.09363/) (2019)
- [Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.07815/) (2024)
- [A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10688/) (2023)
- [Unified Training of Universal Time Series Forecasting Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.02592/) (2024)
- [CSDI: Conditional Score-based Diffusion Models for Probabilistic Time Series Imputation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03502/) (2021)
- [Connecting the Dots: Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.11650/) (2020)
- [Autoregressive Denoising Diffusion Models for Multivariate Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.12072/) (2021)
- [Long-term Forecasting with TiDE: Time-series Dense Encoder](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.08424/) (2023)
- [GIFT-Eval: A Benchmark For General Time Series Forecasting Model Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.10393/) (2024)
- [Tiny Time Mixers (TTMs): Fast Pre-trained Models for Enhanced Zero/Few-Shot Forecasting of Multivariate Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.03955/) (2024)
- [Lag-Llama: Towards Foundation Models for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.08278/) (2023)
- [Context is Key: A Benchmark for Forecasting with Essential Textual Information](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.18959/) (2024)
- [Meta-learning framework with applications to zero-shot time-series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.02887/) (2020)
- [In-Context Fine-Tuning for Time-Series Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.24087/) (2024)
- [LangTime: A Language-Guided Unified Model for Time Series Forecasting with Proximal Policy Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.08271/) (2025)
- [Graph Neural Patching for Cold-Start Recommendations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.14241/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Time-series foundation models show strong transfer performance when given a non-empty history window. However, true cold-start scenarios, where a new item has no prior observations, violate this assumption. We propose RAID (Retrieval-Augmented Iterative Diffusion) a framework, which replaces history-based correlation learning with metadata-driven semantic retrieval and graph-conditioned diffusion. RAID maps textual metadata into a shared semantic space using a frozen multilingual embedding model and constructs an inductive retrieval graph that extends naturally to unseen items. It first forms a base forecast by aggregating information from semantically related neighbors, then refines this forecast with a gated diffusion module to model residual uncertainty. Under a strict true cold-start protocol, RAID outperforms strong foundation models and competitive baselines on both forecasting accuracy and prediction interval coverage, while reducing inference latency by an order of magnitude through non-autoregressive decoding. The shared semantic space also enables zero-shot cross-lingual transfer, allowing a model trained on English descriptions to generalize to items described in other languages without direct supervision.