# Graphical conditional generative modeling for digital twin modeling

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.16219 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.16219/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 15 of its 57 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 15 Jun 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 15 of 15)

- [Flow Matching for Generative Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02747/) (2022)
- [Soft Actor-Critic: Off-Policy Maximum Entropy Deep Reinforcement Learning with a Stochastic Actor](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1801.01290/) (2018)
- [Stochastic Interpolants: A Unifying Framework for Flows and Diffusions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08797/) (2023)
- [Deep Reinforcement Learning in a Handful of Trials using Probabilistic Dynamics Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.12114/) (2018)
- [Learning Sparse Nonparametric DAGs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.13189/) (2019)
- [How to build a consistency model: Learning flow maps via self-distillation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.18825/) (2025)
- [Align Your Flow: Scaling Continuous-Time Flow Map Distillation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.14603/) (2025)
- [Digital Twin: Values, Challenges and Enablers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.01719/) (2019)
- [Causal Networks: Semantics and Expressiveness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1304.2379/) (2013)
- [Learning non-Gaussian graphical models via Hessian scores and triangular transport](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.03093/) (2021)
- [Learning Stochastic Dynamics with Statistics-Informed Neural Network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.12278/) (2022)
- [Self-Corrected Flow Distillation for Consistent One-Step and Few-Step Text-to-Image Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.16906/) (2024)
- [Probabilistic operator learning: generative modeling and uncertainty quantification for foundation models of differential equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.05186/) (2025)
- [Codiscovering graphical structure and functional relationships within data: A Gaussian Process framework for connecting the dots](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.17007/) (2023)
- [Jointly Robust Prior for Gaussian Stochastic Process in Emulation, Calibration and Variable Selection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1804.09329/) (2018)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Digital twin modeling, including control and data assimilation under model uncertainty, often faces an open-ended fidelity problem: adding variables, data streams, and time scales can indefinitely increase model complexity, ultimately producing systems that are difficult to maintain, validate, interpret, and use for stress or safety testing. As an alternative, one can seek parsimonious stochastic surrogate models built only on the variables needed to describe the relevant quantities of interest. We introduce a framework for discovering such variables from observational data by identifying which candidate inputs influence the full conditional law of a target quantity, rather than only its conditional mean. This distinction is essential in stochastic, coarse-grained, or partially observed systems, where dependencies may appear through changes in variability, tail behavior, multimodality, or uncertainty rather than through deterministic functional relationships. The framework couples conditional generative modeling, which learns the conditional distribution of the target given candidate inputs, with Gaussian-process-based analysis of variance (through kernel mode decomposition), which enables iterative pruning of non-influential inputs and interpretable structure discovery. In control settings, the resulting surrogate can be interpreted as a learned Markov decision process: the method identifies not only a transition model, but also the state, action, and memory variables needed to make the learned dynamics effectively Markovian. Across examples involving stochastic dynamical systems, missing variables, PDE control, reinforcement learning, and economic data, the discovered structures yield interpretable stochastic surrogates whose downstream performance is comparable to models trained on the full variable set.