# A Koopman-PINN Framework for Epidemic Models: Parameter Inference and Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.15201 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.15201/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 7 of its 21 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 13 Jun 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 7 of 7)

- [Deep learning for universal linear embeddings of nonlinear dynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1712.09707/) (2017)
- [Learning Koopman Invariant Subspaces for Dynamic Mode Decomposition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.04340/) (2017)
- [Linearly-Recurrent Autoencoder Networks for Learning Dynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1712.01378/) (2017)
- [Linear predictors for nonlinear dynamical systems: Koopman operator meets model predictive control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1611.03537/) (2016)
- [Dynamic mode decomposition with control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.6358/) (2014)
- [Fractional differential equations of a reaction-diffusion SIR model involving the Caputo-fractional time-derivative and a nonlinear diffusion operator](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.00509/) (2025)
- [Identifying Memory Effects in Epidemics via a Fractional SEIRD Model and Physics-Informed Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.22760/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We propose a Koopman-enhanced physics-informed neural network (K--PINN) framework for parameter inference and forecasting in nonlinear epidemic models. This method combines Koopman operator theory and physics-informed learning. It maps epidemic states into a latent observable space where the dynamics evolve approximately linearly while satisfying the governing epidemic equations through automatic differentiation. This integration improves interpretability, parameter identifiability, and long-term predictive stability. We apply the proposed framework to a normalized SEIRSD epidemic model and evaluate it using synthetic monkeypox (Mpox) data and real-world datasets from Germany, Morocco, and Sweden for the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Synthetic trajectories are generated using a structure-preserving, nonstandard finite difference scheme to ensure reliable training data. Numerical results demonstrate that K--PINN achieves more accurate parameter estimation, trajectory reconstruction, and long-term forecasting than classical PINNs and Koopman-EDMD approaches. These results suggest that K--PINN is an effective machine learning framework for epidemic modeling that can be extended to more complex systems.