# ShrinkageTrees: An R Package for Bayesian Tree Ensembles for Survival Analysis and Causal Inference

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.12317 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.12317/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 10 Jun 2026.

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Bayesian fusion forests for heterogeneous treatment effects on survival from randomised and real-world data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.29295/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

ShrinkageTrees is an R package for Bayesian tree ensembles in survival analysis and causal inference. The package implements Bayesian additive regression tree models for right- and interval-censored survival outcomes within an accelerated failure time (AFT) framework, with optional decomposition into prognostic and treatment-effect components for causal inference. Two complementary forms of regularisation are available: regularisation of the tree structure, via depth-penalising priors and Dirichlet splitting priors, and regularisation of the step heights, via global-local shrinkage priors. ShrinkageTrees provides the first implementation of the Horseshoe Forest, which places a horseshoe prior on the step heights. These regularisation strategies extend Bayesian tree ensembles to high-dimensional settings. An efficient Rcpp backend, multi-chain MCMC, and S3 methods support the full workflow: fitting, prediction, causal effect estimation, and convergence diagnostics.