# Pre-AF 13: An Interpretable Atrial Fibrillation Risk Score Mined from Discharge Reports

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.10725 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.10725/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 7 of its 46 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 9 Jun 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 7 of 7)

- [A Unified Approach to Interpreting Model Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07874/) (2017)
- [CatBoost: gradient boosting with categorical features support](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.11363/) (2018)
- [Active Learning for Sequence Tagging with Deep Pre-trained Models and Bayesian Uncertainty Estimates](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.08133/) (2021)
- [LightAutoML: AutoML Solution for a Large Financial Services Ecosystem](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.01528/) (2021)
- [Towards Computationally Feasible Deep Active Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.03598/) (2022)
- [RuBioRoBERTa: a pre-trained biomedical language model for Russian language biomedical text mining](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.03951/) (2022)
- [Unsupervised non-parametric change point detection in quasi-periodic signals](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.02717/) (2020)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Background. Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most prevalent cardiac arrhythmia and a major determinant of prognosis. Established AF risk scores rely on factors (older age, hypertension) nearly ubiquitous among patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD), offering limited stratification in this high-risk group. Most target long-term (5-10 year) rather than medium-term prediction. We developed interpretable ML models predicting AF risk over a 24-month and entire follow-up horizon in CVD patients using routinely collected hospital data. Methods. Single-center retrospective study of electronic health records from the National Research Cardiology Center (Russia) for patients aged >=18 with CVD but without pre-existing AF, hospitalized more than once between January 2012 and May 2019. A custom NLP pipeline transformed unstructured discharge reports into 73 structured features, combining a rule-based parser with transformer-based NER. Using LightAutoML we built a full model (73 features), a simple model (reduced subset), and a linear model for a bedside risk score. Performance was assessed by ROC AUC, compared with CHARGE-AF, C2HEST, MHS, and HAVOC, and interpreted via SHAP. Results. Of 80,576 records from 45,000 patients, 17,562 met inclusion criteria; 1,438 (8.19%) developed AF. The full model reached ROC AUC 0.735 (24-month) and 0.696 (entire follow-up); the simple model was nearly identical (0.725, 0.696). All non-linear models outperformed the four clinical risk scores (ROC AUC 0.53-0.64). The simple model uses 13 features and is named Pre-AF 13. SHAP identified age and left atrial volume as dominant predictors. A linear risk score (Pre-AF 9) stratified observed 24-month AF incidence from ~7% to 36%. Conclusion. Interpretable ML models built from routinely collected EHR data identify high-AF-risk CVD patients, outperforming established clinical risk scores.