# Conformal Risk Prediction for Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Using Gradient Boosting with Distribution-Free Coverages

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.09860 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.09860/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 19 of its 47 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 31 May 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 19 of 19)

- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- [A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.07511/) (2021)
- [TabNet: Attentive Interpretable Tabular Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.07442/) (2019)
- [Tabular Data: Deep Learning is Not All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.03253/) (2021)
- [Conformal prediction beyond exchangeability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.13415/) (2022)
- [Fair Conformal Predictors for Applications in Medical Imaging](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.04392/) (2021)
- [Conformalized Survival Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.09763/) (2021)
- [ReTrack: Evidence-Driven Dual-Stream Directional Anchor Calibration Network for Composed Video Retrieval](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.17898/) (2026)
- [StitchFusion: Weaving Any Visual Modalities to Enhance Multimodal Semantic Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.01343/) (2024)
- [HUD: Hierarchical Uncertainty-Aware Disambiguation Network for Composed Video Retrieval](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.02792/) (2025)
- [Exploring Efficient Open-Vocabulary Segmentation in the Remote Sensing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.12040/) (2025)
- [HABIT: Chrono-Synergia Robust Progressive Learning Framework for Composed Image Retrieval](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.18037/) (2026)
- [Air-Know: Arbiter-Calibrated Knowledge-Internalizing Robust Network for Composed Image Retrieval](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.19386/) (2026)
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- [ConeSep: Cone-based Robust Noise-Unlearning Compositional Network for Composed Image Retrieval](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.20358/) (2026)
- [Exploring the Underwater World Segmentation without Extra Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.07923/) (2025)
- [MARIS: Marine Open-Vocabulary Instance Segmentation with Geometric Enhancement and Semantic Alignment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.15398/) (2025)
- [U3M: Unbiased Multiscale Modal Fusion Model for Multimodal Semantic Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.15365/) (2024)
- [From Physics to Foundation Models: A Review of AI-Driven Quantitative Remote Sensing Inversion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.09081/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) affects roughly 25% of global adults, posing substantial hepatic and cardiovascular risks. Yet, population-level screening tools remain inadequate. We present Method, a machine-learning framework for NAFLD risk prediction coupling gradient-boosted decision trees with conformal prediction to yield calibrated, distribution-free coverage guarantees on individual risk estimates. It integrates a mutual-information-based stability selection procedure to identify a compact, clinically interpretable feature subset via bootstrap resampling, constructing prediction sets whose marginal coverage provably exceeds a user-specified confidence level. We evaluated Method on a multicenter cohort from Guangzhou, China (primary n=2,187; external validation n=412) using 78 candidate features across demographics, metabolic biomarkers, and lifestyle factors. Method achieves an AUROC of 0.912 internally and 0.891 externally, outperforming deep neural networks, TabNet, support vector machines, and logistic regression. Conformal prediction sets achieve 91.3% empirical coverage at the 90% nominal level. A three-tier risk stratification derived from these scores separates the population into distinct groups, with the high-risk subgroup showing a 12-month progression rate 4.7 times that of the low-risk tier. The selected features -- notably waist circumference, ALT, GGT, triglycerides, fasting glucose, and BMI -- align with established metabolic risk factors, providing biological plausibility.