# Bayesian Selective Latent Inference for Wastewater-First Influenza Monitoring

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.09433 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.09433/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 15 of its 22 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 8 Jun 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 15 of 15)

- [ReAct: Synergizing Reasoning and Acting in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.03629/) (2022)
- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- [Toolformer: Language Models Can Teach Themselves to Use Tools](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.04761/) (2023)
- [Selective Classification for Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.08500/) (2017)
- [Large Language Model based Multi-Agents: A Survey of Progress and Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.01680/) (2024)
- [SelectiveNet: A Deep Neural Network with an Integrated Reject Option](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.09192/) (2019)
- [Consistent Estimators for Learning to Defer to an Expert](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.01862/) (2020)
- [MRKL Systems: A modular, neuro-symbolic architecture that combines large language models, external knowledge sources and discrete reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.00445/) (2022)
- [EDDI: Efficient Dynamic Discovery of High-Value Information with Partial VAE](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.11142/) (2018)
- [Learning to Maximize Mutual Information for Dynamic Feature Selection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.00557/) (2023)
- [Active Feature Acquisition with Generative Surrogate Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.02433/) (2020)
- [Acquisition Conditioned Oracle for Nongreedy Active Feature Acquisition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.13960/) (2023)
- [CORTEX: Collaborative LLM Agents for High-Stakes Alert Triage](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.00311/) (2025)
- [Dynamic Feature Acquisition Using Denoising Autoencoders](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.01249/) (2018)
- [Multi-Sourced, Multi-Agent Evidence Retrieval for Fact-Checking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.00267/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Wastewater influenza surveillance can reveal community circulation before clinical reporting, but wastewater alone is not a fully identifiable proxy for human burden. Existing wastewater models assume a fixed evidence set, while generic evidence-acquisition methods treat official surveillance streams as interchangeable costly features. We cast wastewater-first influenza monitoring as a selective decision problem: starting from mandatory wastewater evidence, the system must decide whether wastewater is sufficient, which delayed official stream to query next, and when abstention is the only scientifically defensible action under source ambiguity. We propose Bayesian Selective Latent Inference (BSLI), a principled Bayesian method that maintains a posterior over latent burden and identifiability, certifies answerability through explicit scientific gates, and optimizes query-stop decisions with an exact cost-calibrated Bellman policy. We prove the key variational, answerability, Bellman-optimality, and one-dimensional cost-calibration properties. On a fixed public-data benchmark with 5,933 forecasting episodes and 3,102 source-ambiguity episodes, BSLI improves the matched-budget cost-performance frontier while preserving conservative abstention under source ambiguity.