# In-Context Learning for the Imputation of Public Opinion Data with Large Language Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.09351 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.09351/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 16 of its 42 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 8 Jun 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 16 of 16)

- [gpt-oss-120b & gpt-oss-20b Model Card](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.10925/) (2025)
- [Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13063/) (2023)
- [Whose Opinions Do Language Models Reflect?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.17548/) (2023)
- [Out of One, Many: Using Language Models to Simulate Human Samples](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.06899/) (2022)
- [GLM-4.5: Agentic, Reasoning, and Coding (ARC) Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.06471/) (2025)
- [Language Model Fine-Tuning on Scaled Survey Data for Predicting Distributions of Public Opinions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.16761/) (2025)
- [Benchmarking Distributional Alignment of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.05403/) (2024)
- [Specializing Large Language Models to Simulate Survey Response Distributions for Global Populations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.07068/) (2025)
- [SimBench: Benchmarking the Ability of Large Language Models to Simulate Human Behaviors](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.17516/) (2025)
- [Using simulation studies to evaluate statistical methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1712.03198/) (2017)
- [AI-Augmented Surveys: Leveraging Large Language Models and Surveys for Opinion Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.09620/) (2023)
- [Fast and Eager k-Medoids Clustering: O(k) Runtime Improvement of the PAM, CLARA, and CLARANS Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.05171/) (2020)
- [Valid Survey Simulations with Limited Human Data: The Roles of Prompting, Fine-Tuning, and Rectification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.11408/) (2025)
- [Valid Inference with Imperfect Synthetic Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.06635/) (2025)
- [Large Language Models as Virtual Survey Respondents: Evaluating Sociodemographic Response Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.06337/) (2025)
- [LLMs as Implicit Imputers: Uncertainty Should Scale with Missing Information](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.13188/) (2026)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [AI Contextual Measurement for Recovering Individual and Group-Level Effects: Validation Against Survey Measures and an Occupational Application](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.02821/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Large language models have been widely evaluated as simulators of individual survey responses. In practice, however, fully unobserved responses are rare; the dominant problem is partial non-response. Imputation aims to restore the overall structure of a survey dataset by filling in these missing values. It has its own well-defined evaluation criteria and differs fundamentally from prediction. We propose to impute missing survey data through in-context learning (ICL). We systematically evaluate ICL design choices across different missingness mechanisms (MCAR, MAR, MNAR) on 150 opinion variables spanning 15 waves of the American Trends Panel. Compared to well-established statistical methods for data imputation like MICE PMM, our ICL approach consistently reduces absolute error across all missingness mechanisms, with the largest gains under non-random missingness (MNAR). Notably, the best-performing specification (gpt-oss-120b with 100 in-context examples) achieves near-nominal aggregate coverage (approaching the 95% level) with confidence intervals two to five times narrower than MICE PMM. We publish a Python package with an sklearn-like API to enable easy deployment of our method using local and proprietary LLMs.