# The Token Not Taken: Sampling, State, and the Stochasticity of AI Agents

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.08998 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.08998/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Agent memory systems, one of 16 directions in LLM agents and tool use.
- Builds on 6 of its 31 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 8 Jun 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM agents and tool use / [Agent memory systems](https://mlsanity.com/agents/agent-memory-systems/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 6 of 6)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [ReAct: Synergizing Reasoning and Acting in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.03629/) (2022)
- [Toolformer: Language Models Can Teach Themselves to Use Tools](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.04761/) (2023)
- [On the Opportunities and Risks of Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.07258/) (2021)
- [The Curious Case of Neural Text Degeneration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.09751/) (2019)
- [Governing Technical Debt in Agentic AI Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.29129/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Agentic AI systems can behave differently across runs: the same request may produce a different plan, a different tool call, a different code edit, or a different final answer. Such variability arises from several layers that are often conflated. At the core of many current agents is a foundation model, a large pretrained model adaptable to many downstream tasks, embedded in an orchestration loop that plans, calls tools, observes results, and updates state. One explicit intrinsic source of variability in such systems is token generation: the model computes scores over possible next tokens, the scores are converted into probabilities, and a decoder may sample tokens using a pseudo-random number generator. A small sampled token difference can then cascade downstream into a different tool call, code path, search query, or agent state. Other sources of variability are extrinsic to token sampling, including changing environments, live data, serving infrastructure, batch effects, and numerical details. By separating these layers, this tutorial clarifies what it means to call agentic AI systems stochastic, when such variability can be reproduced under matched conditions, and why deterministic execution need not imply identical behavior in deployed settings.