# Bayesian-Agent: Posterior-Guided Skill Evolution Across LLM Agent Harnesses

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.08348 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.08348/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Agent skill learning and evolution, one of 16 directions in LLM agents and tool use.
- Builds on 17 of its 32 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 6 Jun 2026.

## Placed in

- LLM agents and tool use / [Agent skill learning and evolution](https://mlsanity.com/agents/agent-skill-learning-and-evolution/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 17 of 17)

- [ReAct: Synergizing Reasoning and Acting in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.03629/) (2022)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Toolformer: Language Models Can Teach Themselves to Use Tools](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.04761/) (2023)
- [WebArena: A Realistic Web Environment for Building Autonomous Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.13854/) (2023)
- [MemGPT: Towards LLMs as Operating Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.08560/) (2023)
- [Mind2Web: Towards a Generalist Agent for the Web](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.06070/) (2023)
- [GAIA: a benchmark for General AI Assistants](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.12983/) (2023)
- [OpenHands: An Open Platform for AI Software Developers as Generalist Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.16741/) (2024)
- [Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13063/) (2023)
- [ExpeL: LLM Agents Are Experiential Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.10144/) (2023)
- [A Tutorial on Bayesian Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.02811/) (2018)
- [SkillWeaver: Web Agents can Self-Improve by Discovering and Honing Skills](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.07079/) (2025)
- [LifelongAgentBench: Evaluating LLM Agents as Lifelong Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.11942/) (2025)
- [SkillGrad: Optimizing Agent Skills Like Gradient Descent](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.27760/) (2026)
- [SOP-Agent: Empower General Purpose AI Agent with Domain-Specific SOPs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.09316/) (2025)
- [RealFin: How Well Do LLMs Reason About Finance When Users Leave Things Unsaid?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.07096/) (2026)
- [BayesAgent: Bayesian Agentic Reasoning Under Uncertainty via Verbalized Probabilistic Graphical Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.05516/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Cortex: Measurement-Gated Evolution and Pruning of Coding-Agent Skills and Rules](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.14216/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

LLM agents increasingly rely on prompts, tools, memory, SOPs, skills, and harness feedback, yet current self-evolution pipelines often update these assets through heuristic reflection or raw success counts. Such updates are brittle when trajectories are sparse, expensive, and context-dependent. We introduce Bayesian-Agent, a native and cross-harness framework that treats reusable agent skills as Bayesian evidence objects. Bayesian-Agent records verified trajectories, maintains posterior beliefs over skill reliability and failure modes, and turns those beliefs into auditable skill actions and model-facing guardrails. This posterior view provides a finite-sample alternative to raw empirical-rate skill updates and frames prompt, context, and harness engineering as inference over the external decision environment. On RealFin-Bench, Bayesian skill evolution matches or improves the raw empirical-rate control and yields large gains on native runs. In the incremental mode, incremental repair improves SOP-Bench from 80% to 95%, Lifelong AgentBench from 90% to 100%, and RealFin-Bench from 45% to 65%. Backend and model-scaling ablations further show that posterior-guided repair can operate across BA native, MiniSWEAgent, and Claude Code, provided the harness produces verifiable task artifacts. The source code is available at https://github.com/DataArcTech/Bayesian-Agent.