# Remember with Confidence: Uncertainty Quantification for Spatio-temporal Memory with Probabilistic Guarantees

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.08277 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.08277/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 46 of its 58 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 6 Jun 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 46)

- [Learning Transferable Visual Models From Natural Language Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.00020/) (2021)
- [Visual Instruction Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.08485/) (2023)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Making the V in VQA Matter: Elevating the Role of Image Understanding in Visual Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.00837/) (2016)
- [DeBERTa: Decoding-enhanced BERT with Disentangled Attention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.03654/) (2020)
- [OK-VQA: A Visual Question Answering Benchmark Requiring External Knowledge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.00067/) (2019)
- [Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Machine Learning: An Introduction to Concepts and Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.09457/) (2019)
- [ByteTrack: Multi-Object Tracking by Associating Every Detection Box](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.06864/) (2021)
- [Semantic Uncertainty: Linguistic Invariances for Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.09664/) (2023)
- [SelfCheckGPT: Zero-Resource Black-Box Hallucination Detection for Generative Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08896/) (2023)
- [A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.07511/) (2021)
- [Eyes Wide Shut? Exploring the Visual Shortcomings of Multimodal LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.06209/) (2024)
- [Sentence-T5: Scalable Sentence Encoders from Pre-trained Text-to-Text Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.08877/) (2021)
- [Hallucination of Multimodal Large Language Models: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.18930/) (2024)
- [Conformal prediction beyond exchangeability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.13415/) (2022)
- [INSIDE: LLMs' Internal States Retain the Power of Hallucination Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03744/) (2024)
- [Robots That Ask For Help: Uncertainty Alignment for Large Language Model Planners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.01928/) (2023)
- [ConceptFusion: Open-set Multimodal 3D Mapping](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.07241/) (2023)
- [3D Scene Graph: A Structure for Unified Semantics, 3D Space, and Camera](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.02527/) (2019)
- [Hierarchical Open-Vocabulary 3D Scene Graphs for Language-Grounded Robot Navigation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.17846/) (2024)
- [Conformal Language Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.10193/) (2023)
- [Kernel Language Entropy: Fine-grained Uncertainty Quantification for LLMs from Semantic Similarities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.20003/) (2024)
- [3D Dynamic Scene Graphs: Actionable Spatial Perception with Places, Objects, and Humans](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.06289/) (2020)
- [HalluciDoctor: Mitigating Hallucinatory Toxicity in Visual Instruction Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.13614/) (2023)
- [Plex: Towards Reliability using Pretrained Large Model Extensions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.07411/) (2022)
- [Describe Anything: Detailed Localized Image and Video Captioning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.16072/) (2025)
- [Clio: Real-time Task-Driven Open-Set 3D Scene Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.13696/) (2024)
- [Open3DSG: Open-Vocabulary 3D Scene Graphs from Point Clouds with Queryable Objects and Open-Set Relationships](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.12259/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Uncertainty Quantification for LLM Agents: A Taxonomy, an Evaluation Protocol, and an Empirical Study](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.07395/) (2026)
- [Hierarchical Aggregation of Semantic Uncertainty in 3D Scene Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.22351/) (2026)
- [SafeVantage: Vantage-Aware Memory for Reliable Embodied Decisions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.36906/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Long-horizon robot operation requires spatio-temporal memory to record the environment state and recall it for downstream reasoning. Scene graphs and retrieval-augmented systems ground VLM descriptions to persistent 3D entities with rich semantic descriptions. However, VLM captions are noisy and viewpoint-inconsistent, and existing systems treat them as an oracle with no mechanism to detect unreliable stored descriptions. We introduce object-level semantic uncertainty for multi-view VLM memory: a score that measures object-centric cross-view semantic scatter of captions and identifies semantically unresolved objects. Then, we include our uncertainty scores in an advanced spatial-semantic memory system, that we dub UQ-DAAAM. UQ-DAAAM uses this score to actively refine uncertain objects under a fixed query budget by selecting high-quality views and fusing the resulting multi-view captions into a single object description. We also derive probabilistic guarantees showing that higher-quality candidate views (as selected by our approach) are more likely to reduce uncertainty. Our experiments show that uncertainty quantification can make embodied 4D memory systems more reliable and more effective. In particular, on the OC-NaVQA benchmark, UQ-DAAAM achieves substantially larger uncertainty reduction and better spatio-temporal question answering performance than baselines.