# Causal Semantic Alignment for LLM-based Time Series Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.08262 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.08262/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 3 of its 39 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 6 Jun 2026.

## Builds on (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [LLaMA: Open and Efficient Foundation Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.13971/) (2023)
- [DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12948/) (2025)
- [Context-Alignment: Activating and Enhancing LLM Capabilities in Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.03747/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have opened new possibilities for time series forecasting by enabling alignment between temporal patterns and pretrained word embeddings. However, most LLM-based methods overlook the heterogeneous nature of time series, where dynamic fluctuations and invariant semantics are entangled. This entanglement introduces spurious correlations during the alignment, as dynamic components act as confounders by simultaneously influencing invariant components and the resulting aligned embeddings. To address this issue, a variable-level alignment framework CVAformer is proposed. CVAformer explicitly disentangles each variable into invariant and dynamic components just before alignment, and applies causal intervention to mitigate the confounding effect of the dynamics. To better support variable-level alignment, CVAformer replaces the standard causal attention in LLMs with a non-causal attention mechanism that captures interactions among variables at each time step. Extensive experiments across long-term, short-term, few-shot, and zero-shot forecasting settings indicate that CVAformer matches or exceeds state-of-the-art performance on most datasets, and in some cases achieves notably better accuracy. Experimental results validate the effectiveness of variable-level alignment and dynamic disentanglement in CVAformer, offering a new perspective for LLM-based time series tasks.