# Readable Yet Unpredictable: Rotated-Outcome Prediction in Vision-Language Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.07641 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.07641/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in VLM benchmarks and visual reasoning, one of 16 directions in Multimodal LLMs / vision-language models.
- Builds on 11 of its 29 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 1 Jun 2026.

## Placed in

- Multimodal LLMs / vision-language models / [VLM benchmarks and visual reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/mllm/vlm-benchmarks-and-visual-reasoning/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 11 of 11)

- [Learning Transferable Visual Models From Natural Language Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.00020/) (2021)
- [Improved Baselines with Visual Instruction Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.03744/) (2023)
- [InternVL3.5: Advancing Open-Source Multimodal Models in Versatility, Reasoning, and Efficiency](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.18265/) (2025)
- [CLEVR: A Diagnostic Dataset for Compositional Language and Elementary Visual Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.06890/) (2016)
- [VLMEvalKit: An Open-Source Toolkit for Evaluating Large Multi-Modality Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.11691/) (2024)
- [What's "up" with vision-language models? Investigating their struggle with spatial reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.19785/) (2023)
- [OCRBench v2: An Improved Benchmark for Evaluating Large Multimodal Models on Visual Text Localization and Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.00321/) (2024)
- [Perspective-Aware Reasoning in Vision-Language Models via Mental Imagery Simulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.17207/) (2025)
- [Grounding Visual Illusions in Language: Do Vision-Language Models Perceive Illusions Like Humans?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.00047/) (2023)
- [Is 'Right' Right? Enhancing Object Orientation Understanding in Multimodal Large Language Models through Egocentric Instruction Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.16761/) (2024)
- [RotBench: Evaluating Multimodal Large Language Models on Identifying Image Rotation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.13968/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Can vision-language models predict what a 180deg rotation would reveal from the original image alone? We study this ability through Rotated-Outcome Prediction: given an original image, a model must answer what would be seen or read after a 180deg in-plane rotation, without directly observing the rotated target. To isolate this gap, we introduce RotOutBench, a paired diagnostic benchmark spanning open visual cases and controlled text-image rotations. A sharp pattern emerges: many VLMs can recognize the relevant content when directly given either the original or rotated image, yet fail to infer the rotated result from the original image alone. On controlled text-image rotations, predicted-rotation accuracy collapses to near zero even for models with high direct-reading accuracy. A model-level case study further shows that the prediction state can approach a rotated-image reading state, while the final readout still shifts toward the original string. Current VLMs can recognize a transformed visual state when it is shown, but often fail to predict that state from the original view.